Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-01-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65837 20674 2365 877 130 37 5 0
OW 66 551 449 431 165 25 8 0
VODI 0 293 491 516 362 123 17 0
ODI 0 98 253 634 571 230 50 0
CDI 0 26 49 560 923 947 211 5
VCDI 0 42 95 430 1740 10674 32824 43264
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65552 20768 2427 551 44 17 0 0
OW 57 876 541 435 130 21 0 0
VODI 0 415 636 549 408 89 0 0
ODI 0 103 288 748 698 267 2 0
CDI 0 20 63 520 872 799 172 8
VCDI 0 26 82 476 1602 12283 30898 43605
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64283 21914 2926 595 45 13 0 0
OW 56 531 1046 1094 73 8 0 0
VODI 0 98 368 1331 420 56 2 0
ODI 0 0 36 527 1007 259 25 0
CDI 0 0 15 198 1099 1272 108 9
VCDI 0 0 24 170 1175 11544 28894 45827
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61266 23075 3404 680 46 3 0 0
OW 62 667 572 549 102 12 0 0
VODI 0 269 644 1426 541 108 12 0
ODI 0 50 148 686 1014 278 29 0
CDI 0 14 28 285 1149 1182 128 20
VCDI 0 0 39 240 1114 11210 30670 45326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61267 23224 3530 752 45 2 0 0
OW 61 558 507 649 117 7 0 0
VODI 0 230 574 1284 589 127 18 0
ODI 0 51 162 614 935 307 29 0
CDI 0 12 28 332 1105 1188 178 21
VCDI 0 0 34 235 1175 11162 30614 45325

Date: 2016-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64751 20391 1958 627 130 10 0 0
OW 67 348 472 413 76 21 0 0
VODI 0 179 560 974 302 79 10 0
ODI 0 50 172 912 964 223 58 0
CDI 0 16 95 290 911 897 150 26
VCDI 0 0 28 274 1042 8582 30565 50425
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64752 20461 2107 699 131 8 0 0
OW 66 318 474 500 86 17 0 0
VODI 0 154 445 1052 386 78 14 0
ODI 0 42 135 665 996 280 66 0
CDI 0 9 94 270 773 1018 180 12
VCDI 0 0 30 304 1053 8411 30523 50439

Date: 2016-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62031 21813 3181 796 147 12 0 0
OW 94 154 535 600 94 16 0 0
VODI 0 34 235 981 330 39 0 0
ODI 0 13 17 533 1484 166 2 0
CDI 0 1 18 174 1211 1481 82 14
VCDI 0 0 1 114 638 8326 31031 50650
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62058 21707 2924 822 204 15 0 0
OW 67 144 489 372 96 21 1 0
VODI 0 81 380 788 291 119 7 0
ODI 0 46 123 540 921 217 34 0
CDI 0 23 32 376 1347 910 181 21
VCDI 0 14 39 300 1045 8758 30892 50643

Date: 2016-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61895 22166 2412 805 187 44 11 0
OW 68 158 515 503 99 23 6 0
VODI 0 46 234 706 355 42 4 0
ODI 0 48 99 467 815 197 21 0
CDI 0 25 28 390 1386 1141 183 17
VCDI 0 5 37 211 1177 9224 36258 45040
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61895 22157 2400 859 208 52 2 0
OW 68 118 429 484 117 25 10 0
VODI 0 37 219 657 369 75 20 0
ODI 0 39 102 377 934 320 15 0
CDI 0 50 74 361 1088 1148 213 0
VCDI 0 47 101 344 1303 9051 36223 45057

Date: 2016-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59022 24325 2750 770 219 70 3 0
OW 73 226 530 548 91 30 7 0
VODI 0 21 267 694 331 34 17 0
ODI 0 21 123 443 578 159 19 0
CDI 0 18 67 349 974 1044 142 0
VCDI 0 0 46 323 1089 8654 33207 49764
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59028 24398 2878 987 256 55 12 0
OW 67 101 404 519 170 38 10 0
VODI 0 53 151 563 503 106 30 0
ODI 0 34 127 355 585 399 53 0
CDI 0 16 127 285 737 1124 217 6
VCDI 0 9 96 418 1031 8269 33073 49758


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