Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-12-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66148 19921 2330 363 90 79 31 0
OW 69 421 441 228 16 33 0 0
VODI 0 282 337 468 61 31 9 0
ODI 0 124 268 474 74 30 25 0
CDI 0 28 78 403 415 55 33 0
VCDI 0 62 121 384 1600 3674 6554 3340
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64521 20089 3184 424 70 76 0 0
OW 63 222 399 291 48 15 0 0
VODI 0 180 224 483 104 31 0 0
ODI 0 102 169 419 155 38 0 0
CDI 0 19 180 489 449 129 0 0
VCDI 0 125 124 712 1791 3567 6789 3419
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67014 19325 2281 464 94 49 0 0
OW 68 90 415 402 58 21 0 0
VODI 0 27 189 587 171 54 0 0
ODI 0 23 49 482 314 87 1 0
CDI 0 23 28 231 749 177 10 0
VCDI 0 7 65 154 1395 5147 5072 3777
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66907 18970 2379 805 142 46 4 0
OW 59 253 343 364 115 19 2 0
VODI 0 126 247 519 203 98 14 0
ODI 0 56 110 367 384 82 48 0
CDI 0 28 33 305 609 159 16 0
VCDI 0 49 83 253 1245 4013 6368 3277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66907 18974 2384 824 166 45 3 0
OW 59 241 314 349 107 18 3 0
VODI 0 121 265 519 219 80 12 0
ODI 0 55 98 350 374 86 37 0
CDI 0 40 45 295 577 164 29 0
VCDI 0 51 89 276 1255 4024 6368 3277

Date: 2016-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66131 20040 2022 770 82 32 0 0
OW 65 438 324 340 129 22 1 0
VODI 0 239 303 372 235 103 1 0
ODI 0 66 163 343 418 119 16 0
CDI 0 26 23 343 551 223 41 0
VCDI 0 54 107 414 633 3015 7461 3435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66131 20039 2034 759 98 29 0 0
OW 65 382 280 355 116 23 1 0
VODI 0 244 295 374 260 75 1 0
ODI 0 114 189 330 427 127 9 0
CDI 0 26 32 343 513 221 63 0
VCDI 0 58 112 421 634 3039 7446 3435

Date: 2016-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64371 21759 2561 510 33 9 0 0
OW 57 625 572 647 54 12 0 0
VODI 0 61 112 689 238 23 0 0
ODI 0 9 20 281 568 106 1 0
CDI 0 6 17 84 704 423 14 0
VCDI 0 0 75 220 604 3107 7237 3291
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64367 21481 2352 545 58 17 0 0
OW 61 385 411 318 81 22 0 0
VODI 0 326 206 504 229 42 1 0
ODI 0 206 208 449 388 94 4 0
CDI 0 28 52 240 666 216 22 0
VCDI 0 34 128 375 779 3289 7225 3291

Date: 2016-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63081 21959 2543 658 40 6 0 0
OW 58 419 549 834 103 11 0 0
VODI 0 93 228 901 411 49 0 0
ODI 0 23 25 361 480 82 5 0
CDI 0 8 23 173 660 336 11 0
VCDI 0 0 30 139 554 3144 7733 3370
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63077 21987 2532 766 82 13 0 0
OW 62 261 361 511 144 22 0 0
VODI 0 106 294 625 281 52 5 0
ODI 0 82 107 648 511 89 4 0
CDI 0 39 32 239 684 283 11 0
VCDI 0 27 72 277 546 3169 7729 3370

Date: 2016-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64667 20447 1938 581 71 1 0 0
OW 60 233 465 363 75 8 0 0
VODI 0 112 444 865 287 51 0 0
ODI 0 38 86 591 747 119 0 0
CDI 0 15 35 210 564 322 11 0
VCDI 0 0 29 204 762 3188 6922 4589
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64667 20448 2024 712 122 10 0 0
OW 60 223 411 608 138 20 0 0
VODI 0 120 316 554 423 64 0 0
ODI 0 34 124 402 628 132 0 0
CDI 0 20 79 287 574 358 15 0
VCDI 0 0 43 251 621 3105 6918 4589


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