Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-12-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 368 125 47 4 0 0 0
OW 0 110 138 73 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 222 88 55 0 0 0
ODI 0 59 173 177 102 37 0 1
CDI 0 14 105 278 197 450 96 20
VCDI 0 0 4 153 421 3743 10570 14101
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 441 121 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 228 116 80 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 302 144 146 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 162 160 201 86 59 1 0
CDI 0 77 157 201 220 289 95 14
VCDI 0 1 22 295 542 3430 9697 14777
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 403 209 63 0 0 0 0
OW 0 121 140 149 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 110 148 273 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 114 287 348 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 54 350 421 54 22
VCDI 0 0 0 1 192 3561 9854 15078
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 466 138 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 143 144 95 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 169 202 119 4 0 0
ODI 0 17 143 238 188 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 172 386 364 24 41
VCDI 0 0 0 13 289 2691 7369 18438
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 513 145 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 108 137 95 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 172 226 160 11 0 0
ODI 0 16 145 266 251 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 128 274 370 33 28
VCDI 0 0 0 18 305 2655 7360 18451

Date: 2016-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 573 90 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 316 129 64 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 152 217 120 111 21 0 0
ODI 0 46 110 299 219 175 2 0
CDI 0 0 21 256 241 393 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 521 3425 10384 13997
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 685 112 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 197 103 47 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 140 224 159 183 38 0 0
ODI 0 65 104 320 178 155 6 0
CDI 0 0 24 194 230 392 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 516 3429 10385 13997

Date: 2016-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1020 322 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 167 270 228 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 51 441 147 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 519 197 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 288 678 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 392 3325 8757 14964
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 586 90 22 13 0 0 0
OW 0 294 137 31 22 6 0 0
VODI 0 241 212 203 195 135 0 0
ODI 0 60 165 308 201 211 18 0
CDI 0 6 39 238 224 267 134 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 695 3586 8711 14964

Date: 2016-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 506 119 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 204 288 206 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 175 471 203 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 250 585 67 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 465 577 33 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 120 4656 7514 15489
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 473 109 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 172 178 99 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 152 303 117 0 0 0
ODI 0 60 154 372 566 130 6 0
CDI 0 0 7 170 407 371 45 2
VCDI 0 0 0 10 276 4801 7502 15488

Date: 2016-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 343 98 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 66 133 97 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 133 479 113 12 0 0
ODI 0 32 87 203 331 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 518 606 102 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 3252 8494 16649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 347 79 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 63 129 49 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 116 309 88 5 0 0
ODI 0 45 92 366 250 56 12 0
CDI 0 37 35 133 524 587 88 34
VCDI 0 0 0 8 157 3300 8496 16634


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