Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-12-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66148 20289 2455 410 94 79 31 0
OW 69 531 579 301 46 33 0 0
VODI 0 403 566 562 116 31 9 0
ODI 0 197 504 763 211 84 25 1
CDI 0 42 233 1221 819 719 132 20
VCDI 0 62 125 809 3088 14658 29358 41225
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64521 20530 3305 442 70 76 0 0
OW 63 450 515 371 48 15 0 0
VODI 0 482 368 629 106 31 0 0
ODI 0 264 329 641 338 111 1 0
CDI 0 96 337 747 1144 832 96 14
VCDI 0 126 146 1106 3527 14188 30651 40332
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67014 19728 2490 527 94 49 0 0
OW 68 211 555 551 72 21 0 0
VODI 0 137 337 860 261 54 0 0
ODI 0 31 163 769 667 104 1 0
CDI 0 23 30 299 1327 953 66 22
VCDI 0 7 65 255 2464 14570 30150 42053
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66907 19436 2517 831 142 46 4 0
OW 59 396 487 459 132 19 2 0
VODI 0 216 416 721 322 102 14 0
ODI 0 73 253 605 601 186 48 0
CDI 0 28 40 477 1151 853 50 41
VCDI 0 49 83 299 2249 10719 28536 47479
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66907 19487 2529 837 166 45 3 0
OW 59 349 451 444 116 18 3 0
VODI 0 200 437 745 379 91 12 0
ODI 0 71 243 616 650 210 37 0
CDI 0 40 47 424 1007 848 77 28
VCDI 0 51 89 326 2279 10713 28522 47492

Date: 2016-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66131 20613 2112 777 82 32 0 0
OW 65 754 453 404 150 22 1 0
VODI 0 391 520 492 346 125 1 0
ODI 0 112 273 642 637 304 18 0
CDI 0 26 44 601 798 879 179 0
VCDI 0 54 107 505 1480 11423 31717 43778
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66131 20724 2146 774 98 29 0 0
OW 65 579 383 402 122 23 1 0
VODI 0 384 519 533 443 113 1 0
ODI 0 179 293 650 605 292 15 0
CDI 0 26 56 541 753 860 209 0
VCDI 0 58 112 521 1472 11468 31690 43778

Date: 2016-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64371 22779 2883 572 33 9 0 0
OW 57 792 842 875 58 12 0 0
VODI 0 61 163 1130 385 33 0 0
ODI 0 9 20 392 1087 315 5 0
CDI 0 6 17 112 1034 1246 143 0
VCDI 0 0 75 253 1264 10739 29978 45298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64367 22067 2442 567 71 17 0 0
OW 61 679 548 349 103 28 0 0
VODI 0 567 418 707 424 178 1 0
ODI 0 266 373 757 589 314 22 0
CDI 0 34 91 481 912 576 162 2
VCDI 0 34 128 473 1762 11241 29941 45296

Date: 2016-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63081 22465 2662 686 40 6 0 0
OW 58 623 837 1040 117 12 0 0
VODI 0 167 403 1372 616 99 0 0
ODI 0 23 43 611 1065 225 18 0
CDI 0 8 23 211 1158 1285 93 2
VCDI 0 0 30 193 988 12062 30255 44471
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63077 22460 2641 783 82 13 0 0
OW 62 433 539 610 160 22 0 0
VODI 0 185 446 928 405 64 5 0
ODI 0 142 261 1020 1077 299 10 0
CDI 0 39 39 431 1124 1029 82 2
VCDI 0 27 72 341 1136 12262 30269 44471

Date: 2016-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64667 20790 2036 591 71 1 0 0
OW 60 299 598 460 82 8 0 0
VODI 0 202 577 1345 400 82 34 0
ODI 0 70 173 809 1078 214 39 0
CDI 0 15 35 317 1097 1073 167 19
VCDI 0 0 29 229 1136 9280 31091 47874
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64667 20795 2103 716 122 10 0 0
OW 60 286 540 657 138 20 0 0
VODI 0 159 432 863 511 69 0 0
ODI 0 79 216 769 878 256 21 0
CDI 0 57 114 457 1119 1098 178 34
VCDI 0 0 43 289 1096 9205 31132 47859


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