Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-12-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65668 21664 3788 727 154 98 31 0
OW 56 825 783 469 115 55 6 0
VODI 0 537 529 770 310 16 0 0
ODI 0 264 326 582 573 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 102 608 1011 806 42 7
VCDI 0 0 4 232 1621 9663 29488 44992
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62131 24855 3194 630 206 98 4 0
OW 54 838 921 406 66 32 0 0
VODI 0 430 570 830 154 21 0 0
ODI 0 188 299 737 412 71 0 0
CDI 0 152 268 591 969 499 29 7
VCDI 0 0 40 360 1785 10281 27480 47440
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65418 21579 3740 767 103 77 0 0
OW 55 285 891 713 77 19 0 0
VODI 0 126 462 1183 308 25 0 0
ODI 0 9 150 787 733 77 1 0
CDI 0 0 41 227 1133 996 59 11
VCDI 0 0 12 271 1290 9741 29756 45926
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67816 19642 2431 537 59 85 8 0
OW 55 490 580 344 60 17 0 0
VODI 0 242 852 853 186 81 0 0
ODI 0 72 319 895 360 79 0 0
CDI 0 22 150 747 834 466 73 0
VCDI 0 0 62 531 2367 9244 27806 48683
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67816 19569 2445 562 66 75 8 0
OW 55 512 661 354 54 21 0 0
VODI 0 280 768 879 207 91 0 0
ODI 0 76 299 842 395 79 0 0
CDI 0 30 128 678 820 490 52 0
VCDI 0 1 93 592 2324 9216 27827 48683

Date: 2015-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63246 23542 2730 533 101 94 0 0
OW 56 544 396 293 67 27 0 0
VODI 0 350 778 787 143 34 0 0
ODI 0 205 208 879 343 120 0 0
CDI 0 143 135 561 917 454 55 17
VCDI 0 52 285 667 2766 10038 29221 46261
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63246 23581 2766 560 100 85 0 0
OW 56 510 506 353 69 28 0 0
VODI 0 338 661 793 185 66 0 0
ODI 0 192 167 802 366 168 1 0
CDI 0 139 132 535 813 503 68 13
VCDI 0 76 300 677 2804 9917 29207 46265

Date: 2015-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66956 21392 2541 507 73 71 7 0
OW 55 387 753 591 21 22 0 0
VODI 0 83 375 1107 292 42 0 0
ODI 0 16 51 613 773 137 7 0
CDI 0 8 46 331 1104 773 123 27
VCDI 0 0 31 526 1681 8079 30714 46733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66920 20514 2114 425 81 76 7 0
OW 91 461 402 258 23 35 0 0
VODI 0 436 380 527 179 58 1 0
ODI 0 185 240 625 456 115 2 0
CDI 0 124 203 519 861 471 71 25
VCDI 0 166 458 1321 2344 8369 30770 46735

Date: 2015-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65765 21073 2354 691 106 66 26 0
OW 65 521 505 295 104 16 13 0
VODI 0 390 472 573 213 23 23 0
ODI 0 159 453 900 507 136 32 0
CDI 0 25 137 881 1101 833 31 14
VCDI 0 49 62 738 2525 10037 29546 45588
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65761 20465 2157 541 112 59 28 0
OW 69 562 338 283 57 24 14 0
VODI 0 531 320 334 155 21 47 0
ODI 0 363 341 364 366 66 18 0
CDI 0 137 356 721 871 490 36 38
VCDI 0 159 471 1835 2995 10451 29528 45564

Date: 2015-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66148 20289 2455 410 94 79 31 0
OW 69 531 579 301 46 33 0 0
VODI 0 403 566 562 116 31 9 0
ODI 0 197 504 763 211 84 25 1
CDI 0 42 233 1221 819 719 132 20
VCDI 0 62 125 809 3088 14658 29358 41225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66147 19451 2185 429 112 76 31 0
OW 70 570 395 221 36 31 5 0
VODI 0 505 455 264 88 48 32 0
ODI 0 350 428 421 103 78 32 0
CDI 0 359 307 614 513 508 42 0
VCDI 0 289 692 2117 3522 14863 29413 41246


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