Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-12-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68363 20502 2356 303 86 110 18 0
OW 84 748 308 239 48 9 0 0
VODI 0 456 240 296 78 3 0 0
ODI 0 133 199 306 108 10 0 0
CDI 0 45 92 309 232 49 0 0
VCDI 0 0 40 238 1032 3300 5160 3600
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64629 22802 2889 423 143 172 48 0
OW 69 829 347 254 38 39 7 0
VODI 0 540 253 302 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 145 207 246 125 6 0 0
CDI 0 87 181 386 255 66 0 0
VCDI 0 0 50 489 961 3406 5251 3363
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64993 23106 2683 439 79 107 0 0
OW 109 587 271 262 46 24 7 0
VODI 0 549 312 346 168 38 0 0
ODI 0 57 199 310 186 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 311 348 111 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 204 882 3156 5496 3673
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68083 18995 2721 672 93 101 22 0
OW 58 469 270 269 105 37 10 0
VODI 0 454 251 243 204 7 0 0
ODI 0 140 322 339 232 28 0 0
CDI 0 1 36 427 501 212 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 520 3096 6728 3392
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68083 18977 2713 685 128 138 32 0
OW 58 468 253 244 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 456 280 237 167 7 0 0
ODI 0 142 293 360 225 29 0 0
CDI 0 16 61 392 538 211 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 92 502 3096 6728 3392

Date: 2015-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63653 22255 3320 604 173 109 24 0
OW 54 450 325 327 70 45 0 0
VODI 0 321 194 306 184 9 0 0
ODI 0 330 193 224 240 28 0 0
CDI 0 49 150 426 412 151 3 0
VCDI 0 0 17 164 629 2984 6968 3709
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63652 22164 3329 622 185 140 24 0
OW 55 472 276 305 85 16 0 0
VODI 0 375 206 272 146 6 0 0
ODI 0 369 222 253 211 28 0 0
CDI 0 25 141 403 462 147 2 0
VCDI 0 0 25 196 619 2989 6969 3709

Date: 2015-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61043 25430 3594 597 110 79 0 0
OW 55 174 325 461 44 31 0 0
VODI 0 41 197 633 229 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 30 360 425 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 105 495 165 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 572 3697 6388 3681
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61041 24947 3005 469 144 110 0 0
OW 57 333 364 190 46 33 0 0
VODI 0 223 347 278 102 14 0 0
ODI 0 110 233 417 100 31 0 0
CDI 0 26 166 562 364 101 1 0
VCDI 0 6 33 301 1119 3758 6388 3681

Date: 2015-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67216 20037 2115 552 79 79 6 0
OW 56 253 289 322 39 16 0 0
VODI 0 150 176 367 168 29 0 0
ODI 0 53 196 295 239 28 0 0
CDI 0 21 141 335 439 67 1 0
VCDI 0 1 31 175 1209 3085 7073 3762
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67214 19762 1801 425 87 92 6 0
OW 58 296 351 216 57 29 0 0
VODI 0 228 286 299 112 5 0 0
ODI 0 116 174 312 129 33 0 0
CDI 0 68 152 381 351 69 0 0
VCDI 0 45 184 413 1437 3076 7074 3762

Date: 2015-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68127 18910 1993 432 76 106 5 0
OW 60 218 365 287 40 23 0 0
VODI 0 134 240 356 128 49 0 0
ODI 0 46 128 318 206 55 1 0
CDI 0 5 86 289 457 97 0 0
VCDI 0 2 81 425 1336 3705 6138 4176
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68122 18655 1796 432 89 123 5 0
OW 65 313 310 185 71 67 1 0
VODI 0 195 355 303 86 19 0 0
ODI 0 94 138 344 186 10 0 0
CDI 0 41 129 343 399 52 0 0
VCDI 0 17 165 500 1412 3764 6138 4176


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