Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-12-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 869 315 60 1 0 0 0
OW 0 47 144 69 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 96 146 25 6 0 0
ODI 0 28 65 168 40 25 0 0
CDI 0 5 10 172 173 97 32 17
VCDI 0 0 0 64 452 2497 6718 19676
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 892 266 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 104 100 51 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 134 104 18 4 0 0
ODI 0 34 75 150 21 35 1 0
CDI 0 0 38 247 100 89 27 23
VCDI 0 0 0 162 555 2798 7017 18885
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 903 362 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 86 70 141 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 56 171 46 4 0 0
ODI 0 29 66 92 129 45 3 0
CDI 0 0 18 201 127 178 70 7
VCDI 0 0 0 37 489 3686 7099 17850
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 659 219 49 2 0 0 0
OW 0 64 109 84 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 86 151 73 9 0 0
ODI 0 28 18 122 97 62 0 0
CDI 0 9 32 116 103 286 65 3
VCDI 0 0 2 53 442 2334 8926 17835
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 651 223 61 7 0 0 0
OW 0 74 107 68 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 87 142 60 7 0 0
ODI 0 24 16 129 85 52 0 0
CDI 0 6 26 111 130 282 58 1
VCDI 0 0 7 64 435 2350 8933 17837

Date: 2015-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 444 278 85 0 0 0 0
OW 0 98 92 75 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 94 138 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 46 184 65 8 0 0
CDI 0 2 35 99 179 191 22 5
VCDI 0 0 13 82 220 2360 9020 18184
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 458 298 91 0 0 0 0
OW 0 94 75 78 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 115 149 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 40 176 81 8 0 0
CDI 0 1 25 93 159 181 29 4
VCDI 0 0 5 76 225 2370 9013 18185

Date: 2015-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 455 451 123 11 0 0 0
OW 0 37 142 91 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 56 222 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 78 211 95 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 117 505 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 139 3456 7862 17791
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 301 295 80 5 0 0 0
OW 0 146 86 51 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 140 101 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 77 134 70 20 0 0
CDI 0 8 49 101 161 141 5 0
VCDI 0 0 9 115 282 3895 7919 17791

Date: 2015-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 381 450 81 13 0 0 0
OW 0 63 169 61 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 53 188 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 43 31 109 95 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 31 71 114 210 149 3
VCDI 0 0 6 111 266 2345 8543 18387
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 286 223 58 4 0 0 0
OW 0 68 172 12 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 164 55 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 39 66 91 19 0 0 0
CDI 0 11 39 153 46 79 56 25
VCDI 0 64 76 252 441 2494 8636 18365

Date: 2015-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 466 193 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 115 88 35 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 140 146 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 21 142 55 7 0 0
CDI 0 21 27 77 135 104 45 1
VCDI 0 7 32 118 277 1538 8537 19631
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 317 90 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 56 90 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 123 82 49 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 93 86 51 30 7 0 0
CDI 0 42 67 101 43 31 39 27
VCDI 0 23 86 312 403 1611 8543 19605


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