Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-12-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 942 269 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 515 351 144 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 321 440 576 227 28 0 0
ODI 0 107 213 323 481 105 3 0
CDI 0 0 57 288 629 368 24 0
VCDI 0 0 14 274 1015 4625 11376 22135
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 538 520 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 390 626 39 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 174 283 230 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 101 64 192 406 92 0 0
CDI 0 40 147 214 725 388 9 0
VCDI 0 0 54 374 934 6073 10565 22646
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 760 501 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 223 386 66 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 333 246 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 23 273 145 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 629 342 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 859 6141 11140 23334
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 750 295 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 321 400 72 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 292 297 65 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 223 220 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 518 249 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 842 4956 12296 23792
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 854 377 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 217 368 91 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 242 286 53 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 206 207 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 491 248 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 893 4971 12270 23792

Date: 2015-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 282 334 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 260 498 66 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 292 382 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 242 238 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 483 335 12 6
VCDI 0 0 0 41 616 4133 12547 24927
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 318 483 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 209 390 94 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 223 367 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 211 208 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 473 365 15 1
VCDI 0 0 0 34 658 4107 12544 24932

Date: 2015-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 128 365 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 460 273 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 91 562 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 117 373 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 358 477 5 16
VCDI 0 0 0 32 381 3611 13188 25278
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 20 146 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 115 429 175 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 279 432 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 62 303 227 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 425 352 8 12
VCDI 0 0 0 33 475 3753 13185 25282

Date: 2015-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 75 244 219 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 154 577 167 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 297 340 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 341 434 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 78 461 3546 13568 25185
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 18 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 98 274 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 201 385 202 14 0 0
ODI 0 13 51 308 245 56 0 0
CDI 0 1 48 136 350 415 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 119 507 3564 13560 25185

Date: 2015-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 161 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 621 150 0 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 195 429 38 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 307 249 173 26 6
VCDI 0 0 0 71 772 4623 13269 24524
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 46 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 420 156 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 73 297 223 17 24 2 0
CDI 0 2 218 390 226 110 82 0
VCDI 0 0 7 190 816 4759 13211 24530


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