Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-12-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68363 22313 2940 373 87 110 18 0
OW 84 1310 803 452 65 9 0 0
VODI 0 831 776 1018 330 37 0 0
ODI 0 268 477 797 629 140 3 0
CDI 0 50 159 769 1034 514 56 17
VCDI 0 0 54 576 2499 10422 23254 45411
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64629 24232 3675 472 143 172 48 0
OW 69 1323 1073 344 48 39 7 0
VODI 0 807 670 636 152 4 0 0
ODI 0 280 346 588 552 133 1 0
CDI 0 127 366 847 1080 543 36 23
VCDI 0 0 104 1025 2450 12277 22833 44894
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64993 24769 3546 544 79 107 0 0
OW 109 896 727 469 48 24 7 0
VODI 0 781 701 763 252 42 0 0
ODI 0 86 288 675 460 65 3 0
CDI 0 0 39 621 1104 631 100 7
VCDI 0 0 1 306 2230 12983 23735 44857
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68083 20404 3235 735 95 101 22 0
OW 58 854 779 425 122 37 10 0
VODI 0 599 629 691 342 18 0 0
ODI 0 168 344 684 549 124 0 0
CDI 0 10 68 586 1122 747 76 3
VCDI 0 0 2 167 1804 10386 27950 45019
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68083 20482 3313 764 135 138 32 0
OW 58 759 728 403 113 0 0 0
VODI 0 605 609 665 280 15 0 0
ODI 0 167 313 695 517 102 0 0
CDI 0 22 87 557 1159 741 95 1
VCDI 0 0 7 204 1830 10417 27931 45021

Date: 2015-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63653 22981 3932 715 173 109 24 0
OW 54 808 915 468 76 45 0 0
VODI 0 431 580 826 220 9 0 0
ODI 0 338 242 650 543 48 0 0
CDI 0 51 185 559 1074 677 37 11
VCDI 0 0 30 287 1465 9477 28535 46820
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63652 22940 4110 745 185 140 24 0
OW 55 775 741 477 91 16 0 0
VODI 0 493 544 788 179 6 0 0
ODI 0 375 293 640 500 44 0 0
CDI 0 26 166 549 1094 693 46 5
VCDI 0 0 30 306 1502 9466 28526 46826

Date: 2015-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61043 26013 4410 750 121 79 0 0
OW 55 248 927 825 73 31 0 0
VODI 0 60 344 1417 323 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 37 555 1009 171 6 0
CDI 0 0 2 166 970 1147 62 16
VCDI 0 0 0 101 1092 10764 27438 46750
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61041 25268 3446 591 149 110 0 0
OW 57 594 879 416 65 33 0 0
VODI 0 296 766 811 151 14 0 0
ODI 0 123 372 854 397 78 0 0
CDI 0 34 215 693 950 594 14 12
VCDI 0 6 42 449 1876 11406 27492 46754

Date: 2015-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67216 20420 2565 636 92 79 6 0
OW 56 391 702 602 75 16 0 0
VODI 0 186 383 1132 360 50 0 0
ODI 0 96 245 701 674 94 0 0
CDI 0 21 172 488 894 711 150 3
VCDI 0 1 37 364 1936 8976 29184 47334
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67214 20048 2042 517 91 92 6 0
OW 58 371 621 502 78 29 0 0
VODI 0 339 651 739 337 19 0 0
ODI 0 168 291 711 393 89 0 0
CDI 0 80 239 670 747 563 64 25
VCDI 0 109 260 784 2385 9134 29270 47312

Date: 2015-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68127 19376 2186 490 76 106 5 0
OW 60 368 614 335 44 23 0 0
VODI 0 265 1001 652 145 97 0 0
ODI 0 55 344 889 299 112 1 0
CDI 0 26 124 673 841 374 71 7
VCDI 0 9 113 614 2385 9866 27944 48331
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68122 18972 1886 450 89 123 5 0
OW 65 369 446 241 71 67 1 0
VODI 0 373 857 508 98 20 0 0
ODI 0 260 521 618 233 41 2 0
CDI 0 85 414 834 668 193 121 27
VCDI 0 40 258 1002 2631 10134 27892 48311


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