Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-12-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1946 907 151 0 0 0 0
OW 0 791 418 295 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 586 627 568 50 0 0 0
ODI 0 103 328 745 341 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 92 293 544 545 9 0
VCDI 0 0 1 230 545 4425 8181 23077
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 989 1101 64 0 0 0 0
OW 0 467 661 125 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 265 613 532 139 0 0 0
ODI 0 160 347 704 323 0 0 0
CDI 0 28 231 575 693 192 36 0
VCDI 0 0 11 293 807 4832 9135 22525
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1984 1217 73 16 0 0 0
OW 0 245 777 449 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 274 754 269 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 57 410 519 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 249 622 386 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 163 682 4213 10093 22153
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 532 847 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 534 542 224 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 445 417 596 181 6 0 0
ODI 0 23 182 473 410 124 0 0
CDI 0 33 96 268 623 299 33 0
VCDI 0 15 21 166 986 5085 10366 22291
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 561 858 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 447 459 171 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 507 449 597 171 8 0 0
ODI 0 21 215 532 379 103 0 0
CDI 0 40 111 223 615 287 37 0
VCDI 0 6 13 189 1024 5116 10362 22291

Date: 2015-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 781 284 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 599 349 60 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 294 267 313 86 15 0 0
ODI 0 168 144 481 405 94 7 0
CDI 0 46 153 312 644 320 21 0
VCDI 0 0 15 403 954 4741 11194 22694
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 835 308 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 462 284 53 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 402 315 309 108 40 0 0
ODI 0 154 146 473 385 84 0 0
CDI 0 35 133 294 613 329 18 0
VCDI 0 0 26 428 983 4717 11204 22694

Date: 2015-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 850 635 59 0 0 0 0
OW 0 175 361 127 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 211 385 52 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 293 402 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 667 1004 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 786 5383 10756 23313
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 528 485 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 371 375 100 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 171 195 298 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 49 78 131 264 226 0 0
CDI 0 1 63 174 469 731 72 0
VCDI 0 0 30 310 1094 5468 10744 23313

Date: 2015-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 833 297 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 303 391 70 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 185 348 235 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 274 122 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 113 442 216 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 813 5398 11657 23980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 618 245 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 421 301 85 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 239 351 218 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 43 113 245 240 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 55 129 396 654 39 9
VCDI 0 0 9 125 732 4876 11628 23971

Date: 2015-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 539 355 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 304 427 56 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 110 308 332 25 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 230 222 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 72 434 332 8 2
VCDI 0 0 0 49 677 4593 12749 24014
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 427 360 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 362 330 71 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 148 333 237 99 6 0 0
ODI 0 16 67 242 260 217 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 112 385 802 72 12
VCDI 0 0 0 62 614 3914 12685 24004


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