Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-12-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71924 19267 4465 627 234 150 0 0
OW 49 1288 929 618 107 5 0 0
VODI 0 986 1111 1409 237 5 0 0
ODI 0 254 527 1449 1293 156 1 0
CDI 0 6 141 601 1887 1431 75 99
VCDI 0 0 55 403 1704 11114 18864 43577
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73365 17272 3638 430 219 290 22 0
OW 52 1113 1023 327 43 23 0 0
VODI 0 627 1088 938 201 1 0 0
ODI 0 426 667 1456 583 46 3 0
CDI 0 81 368 1022 1557 658 92 33
VCDI 0 13 119 567 2575 11233 19725 45152
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68122 23688 4518 685 189 112 0 0
OW 48 668 1213 988 137 117 0 0
VODI 0 213 493 1398 529 44 0 0
ODI 0 12 115 723 1005 97 0 0
CDI 0 8 54 443 1299 908 142 18
VCDI 0 0 21 300 1328 10735 21448 45230
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67762 22555 3708 390 105 107 46 0
OW 63 1245 979 564 78 12 0 0
VODI 0 803 755 1177 283 13 0 0
ODI 0 114 387 1011 599 147 0 0
CDI 0 54 170 610 1103 483 49 21
VCDI 0 15 56 358 2127 10770 22498 45831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67772 22667 3743 402 127 119 46 0
OW 53 1071 873 501 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 897 786 1186 265 13 0 0
ODI 0 105 417 1039 600 124 0 0
CDI 0 40 191 593 1096 491 44 23
VCDI 0 6 45 389 2138 10785 22503 45829

Date: 2015-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67534 22702 2729 456 115 141 29 0
OW 84 1536 751 335 64 21 1 0
VODI 0 923 661 704 164 21 0 0
ODI 0 353 412 906 534 128 7 0
CDI 0 121 357 913 942 471 57 21
VCDI 0 1 76 961 2686 10990 23348 44793
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67555 22731 2716 429 124 161 30 0
OW 63 1448 698 333 48 1 0 0
VODI 0 1008 746 705 181 44 0 0
ODI 0 352 377 916 510 112 0 0
CDI 0 96 386 854 912 452 48 22
VCDI 0 1 63 1038 2730 11002 23364 44792

Date: 2015-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63920 25589 4668 601 154 67 0 0
OW 49 1026 869 608 75 58 1 0
VODI 0 315 517 1084 236 75 2 0
ODI 0 0 62 850 737 88 2 0
CDI 0 0 11 467 1196 1306 126 2
VCDI 0 0 0 297 1826 11693 23494 44977
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63918 24457 3903 391 177 171 3 0
OW 51 1170 836 342 35 28 0 0
VODI 0 849 543 720 181 0 0 0
ODI 0 361 353 472 431 251 2 0
CDI 0 61 338 686 820 842 125 4
VCDI 0 32 154 1296 2580 11995 23495 44975

Date: 2015-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68220 21692 2653 582 58 71 39 0
OW 51 892 776 450 91 22 5 0
VODI 0 845 667 647 258 18 0 0
ODI 0 115 328 651 450 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 95 600 1047 572 82 11
VCDI 0 0 0 177 2025 11348 26604 44822
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68219 20801 2367 380 82 92 44 0
OW 52 1193 605 304 44 1 0 0
VODI 0 1101 729 591 140 21 0 0
ODI 0 347 346 566 438 134 2 0
CDI 0 73 317 588 805 901 82 20
VCDI 0 29 155 678 2420 10966 26602 44813

Date: 2015-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65668 21664 3788 727 154 98 31 0
OW 56 825 783 469 115 55 6 0
VODI 0 537 529 770 310 16 0 0
ODI 0 264 326 582 573 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 102 608 1011 806 42 7
VCDI 0 0 4 232 1621 9663 29488 44992
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65667 21149 3485 641 158 116 34 0
OW 57 945 782 336 70 25 3 0
VODI 0 730 716 683 294 35 0 0
ODI 0 308 223 626 538 262 1 0
CDI 0 124 236 510 798 1017 143 19
VCDI 0 34 90 592 1926 9309 29386 44980


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