Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 1843 582 27 5 0 0 0
OW 0 480 303 89 63 3 0 0
VODI 0 69 249 427 93 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 299 278 139 30 0
CDI 0 0 3 89 368 355 160 18
VCDI 0 0 0 50 360 3852 8569 13229
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55 1686 482 41 2 0 0 0
OW 0 598 283 106 26 12 0 0
VODI 0 110 285 462 164 23 0 0
ODI 0 2 67 309 314 160 14 0
CDI 0 0 11 135 400 426 129 9
VCDI 0 0 0 70 414 4178 8740 12369
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16 1399 551 67 0 0 0 0
OW 0 348 335 513 22 3 0 0
VODI 0 317 205 587 335 39 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 286 595 148 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 461 549 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 334 3745 7820 13312
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 924 417 47 0 0 0 0
OW 0 119 221 157 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 135 584 290 17 0 0
ODI 0 13 50 434 853 277 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 553 603 79 41
VCDI 0 0 0 10 128 2994 8366 14628
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 941 460 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 82 193 191 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 112 527 236 4 0 0
ODI 0 31 55 414 737 152 2 0
CDI 0 0 3 87 694 666 72 41
VCDI 0 0 0 13 161 3069 8373 14628

Date: 2015-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 828 292 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 154 113 57 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 208 185 52 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 79 322 260 43 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 170 898 792 88 110
VCDI 0 0 0 24 514 2523 7604 16685
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 874 332 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 108 133 63 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 159 220 62 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 64 279 297 32 3 0
CDI 0 0 5 157 758 728 87 69
VCDI 0 0 0 22 602 2597 7604 16726

Date: 2015-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 985 556 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 97 201 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 28 252 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 100 303 24 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 333 580 72 10
VCDI 0 0 0 15 270 3064 6168 18878
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 887 313 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 77 148 48 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 181 167 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 41 225 160 69 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 125 384 396 52 13
VCDI 0 0 0 58 395 3203 6182 18875

Date: 2015-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 606 581 102 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 71 173 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 51 250 40 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 161 176 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 225 252 41 23
VCDI 0 0 0 12 178 1822 7887 19367
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 604 512 83 1 0 0 0
OW 0 8 106 122 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 86 212 55 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 199 153 64 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 174 344 228 24
VCDI 0 0 0 38 235 1679 7686 19366

Date: 2015-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 869 315 60 1 0 0 0
OW 0 47 144 69 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 96 146 25 6 0 0
ODI 0 28 65 168 40 25 0 0
CDI 0 5 10 172 173 97 32 17
VCDI 0 0 0 64 452 2497 6718 19676
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 786 292 53 10 0 0 0
OW 0 86 95 65 9 2 0 0
VODI 0 74 88 126 36 9 0 0
ODI 0 54 77 103 89 37 7 7
CDI 0 3 64 177 125 161 157 100
VCDI 0 0 14 155 433 2416 6586 19586


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