Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 306 5693 1484 155 28 0 0 0
OW 0 794 582 408 116 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 178 326 222 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 63 177 275 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 116 472 359 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 619 4611 7878 20817
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4545 1370 166 1 3 0 0
OW 0 579 832 483 121 68 0 0
VODI 0 91 329 549 484 117 0 0
ODI 0 4 14 211 259 104 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 127 368 400 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 98 390 4388 8996 20769
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3465 1305 257 7 0 0 0
OW 0 806 602 453 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 137 469 892 251 1 0 0
ODI 0 7 19 320 493 193 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 392 782 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 325 4012 7754 22774
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2189 1143 214 29 0 0 0
OW 0 730 588 386 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 408 778 604 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 80 275 608 437 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 266 472 744 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 188 529 4810 7740 22390
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2384 1213 304 29 0 0 0
OW 0 495 556 322 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 420 735 584 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 108 264 645 485 48 3 0
CDI 0 0 35 212 432 717 61 0
VCDI 0 0 2 199 534 4829 7741 22390

Date: 2015-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1742 731 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 712 448 192 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 374 651 525 141 0 0 0
ODI 0 133 367 699 334 3 0 0
CDI 0 8 152 410 630 403 19 0
VCDI 0 0 1 225 632 4727 8438 23062
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1801 818 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 594 373 183 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 416 558 500 155 0 0 0
ODI 0 142 410 697 297 6 0 0
CDI 0 16 181 405 648 334 16 0
VCDI 0 0 10 227 649 4793 8441 23062

Date: 2015-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2453 1421 116 17 0 0 0
OW 0 96 644 652 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 164 803 239 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 42 526 656 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 184 730 304 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 159 528 4076 9619 22343
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1413 750 79 1 0 0 0
OW 0 470 432 111 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 478 430 382 157 0 0 0
ODI 0 155 335 668 250 15 0 0
CDI 0 38 268 738 604 138 21 0
VCDI 0 1 56 462 1198 4243 9612 22343

Date: 2015-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1550 482 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 640 628 258 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 378 766 254 9 0 0
ODI 0 13 139 413 506 91 0 0
CDI 0 9 60 296 565 474 7 0
VCDI 0 0 1 121 939 5582 9176 22327
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1259 452 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 588 337 119 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 305 385 365 158 10 0 0
ODI 0 104 180 506 412 57 0 0
CDI 0 40 208 350 491 456 92 0
VCDI 0 21 126 507 1219 5633 9091 22327

Date: 2015-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 942 269 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 515 351 144 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 321 440 576 227 28 0 0
ODI 0 107 213 323 481 105 3 0
CDI 0 0 57 288 629 368 24 0
VCDI 0 0 14 274 1015 4625 11376 22135
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 881 357 43 21 0 0 0
OW 0 459 382 151 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 289 301 419 107 41 0 0
ODI 0 127 108 286 560 147 7 0
CDI 0 80 61 229 620 356 253 0
VCDI 0 49 135 487 1001 4582 11143 22135


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