Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-11-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74390 24184 4412 804 322 130 0 0
OW 0 1668 1216 749 264 5 0 0
VODI 0 229 682 1274 451 23 0 0
ODI 0 19 144 919 852 218 30 0
CDI 0 3 37 465 1552 804 162 18
VCDI 0 0 1 226 2177 10410 20878 37330
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73875 22285 4376 926 286 198 0 0
OW 0 1547 1556 961 270 83 0 0
VODI 0 356 763 1615 851 150 0 0
ODI 0 7 120 1001 1034 288 14 0
CDI 0 0 17 444 1484 994 129 9
VCDI 0 0 0 203 1681 10575 22376 36574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69733 24154 4937 1117 232 203 2 0
OW 31 1376 1372 1421 128 4 0 0
VODI 0 669 931 1982 902 46 0 0
ODI 0 16 55 775 1769 367 5 0
CDI 0 0 17 171 1455 2049 46 0
VCDI 0 0 1 164 1205 10086 19352 40275
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72910 19825 3806 759 243 135 0 0
OW 37 1179 1140 839 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 763 1220 1666 561 17 0 0
ODI 0 159 385 1272 1748 339 2 0
CDI 0 3 57 465 1676 1514 144 41
VCDI 0 2 25 325 1330 11335 19545 41474
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72911 19955 3935 873 262 135 0 0
OW 36 977 1042 791 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 785 1144 1544 496 6 0 0
ODI 0 211 412 1332 1719 231 5 0
CDI 0 0 73 449 1740 1610 133 41
VCDI 0 3 27 337 1358 11358 19553 41474

Date: 2015-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75635 16799 2540 397 229 225 0 0
OW 57 1365 809 425 67 20 0 0
VODI 0 796 1189 1056 235 0 0 0
ODI 0 378 662 1460 734 46 2 0
CDI 0 39 215 774 2073 1210 107 110
VCDI 0 17 107 474 2205 11003 19582 44006
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75633 16994 2671 463 238 240 0 0
OW 59 1070 739 411 57 5 0 0
VODI 0 862 1011 1065 268 1 0 0
ODI 0 384 704 1369 762 38 3 0
CDI 0 67 284 785 1924 1104 103 69
VCDI 0 17 113 493 2294 11116 19585 44047

Date: 2015-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73868 19596 3978 582 244 165 8 0
OW 50 535 1048 1292 93 91 37 0
VODI 0 83 366 1503 443 16 16 0
ODI 0 14 106 792 1265 39 1 0
CDI 0 4 54 391 1635 1002 87 10
VCDI 0 0 0 230 1242 10567 20019 45576
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73863 17992 2611 404 228 261 61 0
OW 55 921 845 272 42 10 0 0
VODI 0 787 899 799 222 0 0 0
ODI 0 350 575 1186 508 84 7 0
CDI 0 171 482 1351 1382 593 73 13
VCDI 0 11 140 778 2540 10932 20027 45573

Date: 2015-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67843 23366 3746 479 66 89 53 0
OW 44 1145 1079 723 112 55 5 0
VODI 0 376 704 1429 398 13 0 0
ODI 0 50 228 885 874 106 0 0
CDI 0 10 99 544 1109 780 49 23
VCDI 0 0 27 284 2052 11073 21172 45958
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67838 22577 3383 429 113 144 58 0
OW 49 1002 726 383 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 673 706 815 290 12 0 0
ODI 0 386 332 935 709 123 14 0
CDI 0 259 440 747 976 872 320 24
VCDI 0 50 296 1035 2466 10965 20887 45957

Date: 2015-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68363 22313 2940 373 87 110 18 0
OW 84 1310 803 452 65 9 0 0
VODI 0 831 776 1018 330 37 0 0
ODI 0 268 477 797 629 140 3 0
CDI 0 50 159 769 1034 514 56 17
VCDI 0 0 54 576 2499 10422 23254 45411
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68356 21751 2877 411 135 117 18 0
OW 73 959 729 380 110 4 0 0
VODI 18 805 579 727 245 55 0 0
ODI 0 493 368 580 762 194 14 7
CDI 0 392 273 723 955 569 410 100
VCDI 0 372 383 1164 2437 10293 22889 45321


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