Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1075 707 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 238 293 388 39 6 0 0
VODI 0 191 182 473 258 70 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 275 371 126 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 249 412 94 53
VCDI 0 0 0 13 287 3423 8902 13825
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1091 407 63 1 0 0 0
OW 0 281 205 255 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 403 129 430 262 20 0 0
ODI 0 18 95 170 339 163 3 0
CDI 0 0 11 66 292 412 118 16
VCDI 0 0 0 26 222 3142 8516 14910
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1714 849 73 1 0 0 0
OW 0 125 213 271 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 459 114 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 121 439 105 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 342 429 49 50
VCDI 0 0 0 22 132 3276 7673 15536
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1942 547 48 4 0 0 0
OW 0 377 303 127 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 196 457 71 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 281 288 137 11 3
CDI 0 0 4 65 389 326 150 57
VCDI 0 0 0 37 298 3509 8626 13727
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2084 648 70 4 0 0 0
OW 0 260 246 178 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 152 484 127 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 186 303 185 11 2
CDI 0 0 5 51 300 254 133 54
VCDI 0 0 0 46 302 3527 8643 13731

Date: 2015-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47 1872 500 33 4 1 0 0
OW 0 479 238 132 47 7 0 0
VODI 0 71 261 449 155 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 37 271 316 202 30 0
CDI 0 0 7 110 334 460 128 9
VCDI 0 0 0 57 385 3774 9183 12466
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 47 2134 583 85 1 0 0 0
OW 0 276 207 182 57 6 0 0
VODI 0 12 207 381 211 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 36 226 317 195 25 0
CDI 0 0 10 110 286 394 110 4
VCDI 0 0 0 68 369 3839 9206 12471

Date: 2015-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 28 1657 848 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 451 370 337 10 3 0 0
VODI 0 237 32 744 275 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 643 229 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 358 769 113 6
VCDI 0 0 0 8 170 3572 7766 13212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 28 1824 527 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 414 306 149 10 5 0 0
VODI 0 107 314 329 185 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 92 410 256 96 2 0
CDI 0 0 11 258 389 273 58 9
VCDI 0 0 0 146 616 4182 7827 13209

Date: 2015-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 1179 383 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 232 280 173 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 173 238 663 466 36 0 0
ODI 0 86 49 322 654 195 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 573 509 40 23
VCDI 0 0 0 15 164 3603 7549 14379
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 1234 521 137 0 0 0 0
OW 0 245 173 273 49 3 0 0
VODI 0 191 199 411 299 109 0 0
ODI 0 0 57 219 391 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 190 504 299 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 624 3811 7581 14402

Date: 2015-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 782 397 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 128 170 97 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 155 384 106 3 0 0
ODI 0 11 59 377 685 140 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 142 754 777 66 99
VCDI 0 0 0 7 389 2614 7448 16193
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 973 680 335 113 14 0 0
OW 0 6 75 293 206 36 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 282 541 137 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 324 299 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 355 383 43 6
VCDI 0 0 0 6 403 2665 7469 16286


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