Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-11-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75842 23385 3839 838 220 0 0 0
OW 87 1551 969 935 248 7 0 0
VODI 0 694 760 1169 656 108 0 0
ODI 0 16 255 942 1053 206 3 0
CDI 0 0 137 567 1344 816 152 64
VCDI 0 0 11 439 2075 9946 20859 36855
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72754 24897 4200 743 215 50 0 0
OW 94 1804 788 890 151 5 0 0
VODI 0 1015 828 1172 622 93 2 0
ODI 0 61 341 711 1004 260 14 0
CDI 0 1 140 414 1259 1021 170 16
VCDI 0 0 14 308 1630 9620 19465 40276
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71773 26843 6657 870 162 89 0 0
OW 0 519 883 1027 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 344 1179 483 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 68 419 1266 197 2 0
CDI 0 0 5 228 1465 1342 87 50
VCDI 0 0 0 128 1136 9487 19303 40886
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75775 23822 4343 811 265 120 0 0
OW 0 1083 1173 957 178 3 0 0
VODI 0 101 489 1390 405 9 0 0
ODI 0 21 101 727 845 181 11 3
CDI 0 11 41 453 1718 643 152 58
VCDI 0 0 20 270 2479 9253 21274 37863
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75775 23901 4513 912 287 121 0 0
OW 0 1017 997 896 173 4 0 0
VODI 0 89 488 1382 442 13 0 0
ODI 0 20 104 659 851 240 11 2
CDI 0 9 45 475 1549 530 135 54
VCDI 0 2 20 284 2588 9301 21291 37868

Date: 2015-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75367 22463 4048 822 325 178 0 0
OW 2 1743 1165 865 318 52 0 0
VODI 0 378 756 1318 594 88 0 0
ODI 0 5 185 947 909 291 30 0
CDI 0 0 36 509 1364 954 129 9
VCDI 0 0 0 201 1887 10317 21672 37121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75369 23098 4338 1066 414 178 0 0
OW 0 1064 851 731 313 66 0 0
VODI 0 410 760 1227 565 92 0 0
ODI 0 17 177 814 943 277 25 0
CDI 0 0 60 531 1040 837 110 4
VCDI 0 0 4 293 2122 10430 21696 37126

Date: 2015-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74037 21798 4786 1214 257 132 0 0
OW 57 1438 1168 1399 131 4 0 0
VODI 7 433 346 2350 752 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 475 2254 433 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 116 1578 2020 118 6
VCDI 0 0 0 87 654 9419 20385 39152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74101 22069 4104 1334 330 160 0 0
OW 0 1161 1007 998 329 128 0 0
VODI 0 377 922 1336 804 243 0 0
ODI 0 58 231 1021 935 306 2 0
CDI 0 4 40 611 1172 563 67 9
VCDI 0 0 3 341 2056 10635 20442 39149

Date: 2015-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73876 19638 4102 740 242 191 14 0
OW 38 1428 1189 860 83 16 0 0
VODI 0 936 1218 1824 821 43 0 0
ODI 0 176 206 1071 1684 287 0 0
CDI 0 0 43 331 1526 1881 59 23
VCDI 0 0 12 241 1093 11242 18608 41306
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73914 20228 4284 961 271 199 25 0
OW 0 954 834 913 287 122 8 0
VODI 0 822 1105 1390 742 550 2 0
ODI 0 126 363 768 910 378 0 0
CDI 0 47 105 613 1291 876 9 0
VCDI 0 1 79 422 1948 11535 18637 41329

Date: 2015-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71924 19267 4465 627 234 150 0 0
OW 49 1288 929 618 107 5 0 0
VODI 0 986 1111 1409 237 5 0 0
ODI 0 254 527 1449 1293 156 1 0
CDI 0 6 141 601 1887 1431 75 99
VCDI 0 0 55 403 1704 11114 18864 43577
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71973 19738 4893 1036 398 165 0 0
OW 0 854 708 905 367 62 19 0
VODI 0 757 651 1170 964 504 83 0
ODI 0 375 567 867 786 821 28 0
CDI 0 54 230 529 954 1069 108 11
VCDI 0 23 179 600 1993 10240 18702 43665


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