Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75373 16450 1633 486 58 0 0 0
OW 25 666 348 253 62 0 0 0
VODI 2 685 590 541 122 16 0 0
ODI 0 110 193 238 275 46 0 0
CDI 0 8 23 65 350 242 11 0
VCDI 0 0 2 50 204 1446 4367 4160
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76620 15152 1498 370 120 3 0 0
OW 25 750 262 143 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 641 518 447 97 5 0 0
ODI 0 140 208 745 170 11 0 0
CDI 0 9 60 115 402 95 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 62 467 2417 3198 4313
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74411 17727 2059 477 227 48 0 0
OW 0 282 310 330 97 4 0 0
VODI 0 8 231 480 182 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 47 307 834 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 12 127 371 151 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 368 2594 3508 3817
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76891 14964 1786 469 212 0 0 0
OW 39 573 240 171 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 178 317 320 4 0 0
ODI 0 3 124 269 456 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 58 197 950 306 4 0
VCDI 0 0 2 139 568 2554 3380 3712
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76930 15121 1778 455 211 0 0 0
OW 0 373 234 179 78 1 0 0
VODI 0 133 183 336 326 9 0 0
ODI 0 4 122 219 508 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 70 248 883 313 8 0
VCDI 0 0 1 125 596 2522 3376 3712

Date: 2015-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75448 15851 1862 542 258 0 0 0
OW 32 601 226 226 87 5 0 0
VODI 0 283 247 293 234 30 2 0
ODI 0 12 119 238 573 33 18 0
CDI 0 1 97 206 672 341 51 0
VCDI 0 0 15 225 619 1693 4501 3459
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75469 15987 1845 493 260 1 0 0
OW 11 421 189 245 59 6 0 0
VODI 0 317 270 279 249 23 6 0
ODI 0 17 133 262 516 47 13 0
CDI 0 6 99 199 718 360 50 0
VCDI 0 0 30 252 641 1665 4503 3459

Date: 2015-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74422 17833 2135 506 202 36 0 0
OW 0 109 228 386 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 76 368 230 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 186 779 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 135 560 1065 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 199 1937 4041 3535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74374 16972 1704 432 215 36 0 0
OW 48 491 163 218 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 361 235 254 155 12 0 0
ODI 0 119 177 227 393 27 3 0
CDI 0 4 145 173 641 300 9 0
VCDI 0 0 33 289 565 2696 4060 3535

Date: 2015-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73862 17414 2432 535 163 128 0 0
OW 0 244 282 328 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 177 347 172 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 49 179 437 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 182 824 375 4 0
VCDI 0 0 1 68 414 3114 4122 3110
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73764 16688 2030 466 180 128 0 0
OW 98 536 213 187 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 351 216 228 119 0 0 0
ODI 0 114 263 258 297 6 0 0
CDI 0 35 97 164 747 156 0 0
VCDI 0 10 138 336 679 3328 4126 3110

Date: 2015-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74080 16648 2346 622 289 130 0 0
OW 0 394 331 252 85 2 0 0
VODI 0 92 255 521 136 8 0 0
ODI 0 18 50 443 299 25 0 0
CDI 0 3 34 260 712 90 1 0
VCDI 0 0 1 113 1198 1947 4431 3284
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74077 15775 2012 536 305 130 0 0
OW 3 487 282 169 45 2 0 0
VODI 0 555 271 240 93 10 0 0
ODI 0 204 220 271 213 17 0 0
CDI 0 52 130 338 403 59 1 0
VCDI 0 82 102 657 1660 1984 4431 3284


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