Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2047 793 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 175 313 233 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 166 501 204 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 300 431 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 298 777 134 27
VCDI 0 0 0 11 128 2510 7223 15594
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1656 615 73 0 0 0 0
OW 0 224 318 211 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 127 347 240 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 159 317 150 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 314 764 90 57
VCDI 0 0 0 3 23 2785 7645 15889
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1965 570 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 237 339 280 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 107 375 213 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 102 360 204 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 354 673 147 22
VCDI 0 0 0 4 394 4297 7307 13903
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 1476 490 37 0 0 0 0
OW 0 447 289 320 37 4 0 0
VODI 0 102 219 478 204 57 0 0
ODI 0 2 21 203 307 142 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 56 258 436 137 14
VCDI 0 0 0 13 254 3869 8882 13320
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 1543 547 82 1 0 0 0
OW 0 419 225 259 54 4 0 0
VODI 0 62 215 463 153 70 0 0
ODI 0 3 32 208 317 173 3 0
CDI 0 0 1 75 235 345 156 17
VCDI 0 0 0 20 300 3916 8864 13317

Date: 2015-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5 1215 355 95 0 0 0 0
OW 0 213 205 371 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 297 200 373 321 76 0 0
ODI 0 4 37 234 312 153 1 1
CDI 0 0 1 90 303 489 134 25
VCDI 0 0 0 14 265 3380 8679 14197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5 1282 419 175 3 0 0 0
OW 0 215 142 307 96 16 0 0
VODI 0 232 199 338 238 93 0 0
ODI 0 0 36 235 350 112 3 0
CDI 0 0 2 98 244 442 156 28
VCDI 0 0 0 24 307 3435 8655 14195

Date: 2015-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1869 704 115 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 146 334 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 414 189 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 548 90 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 210 656 101 4
VCDI 0 0 0 11 104 3150 8293 15025
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1254 424 82 14 0 0 0
OW 0 285 133 238 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 344 203 289 182 53 0 0
ODI 0 4 84 236 293 142 13 0
CDI 0 0 11 62 349 257 91 4
VCDI 0 0 1 37 202 3444 8295 15025

Date: 2015-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 1876 663 34 4 0 0 0
OW 0 232 304 180 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 101 491 71 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 205 365 99 3 1
CDI 0 0 0 63 390 344 48 76
VCDI 0 0 0 30 222 3722 7313 15189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 1383 540 36 21 0 0 0
OW 0 384 194 189 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 354 260 269 122 43 0 0
ODI 0 2 66 292 172 134 3 0
CDI 0 0 9 149 349 202 93 50
VCDI 0 0 4 68 391 3786 7268 15216

Date: 2015-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 1843 582 27 5 0 0 0
OW 0 480 303 89 63 3 0 0
VODI 0 69 249 427 93 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 299 278 139 30 0
CDI 0 0 3 89 368 355 160 18
VCDI 0 0 0 50 360 3852 8569 13229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 1583 612 53 22 5 0 0
OW 0 467 232 150 40 8 0 0
VODI 0 342 260 255 126 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 51 338 162 186 11 0
CDI 0 0 12 108 413 375 141 7
VCDI 0 0 1 77 404 3748 8607 13240


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