Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1001 7774 2102 175 0 0 0 0
OW 0 304 456 102 9 1 0 0
VODI 0 65 426 470 105 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 220 323 109 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 164 444 716 14 1
VCDI 0 0 0 59 1031 3935 5437 20385
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 499 7308 1905 265 64 0 0 0
OW 0 467 670 122 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 274 417 73 7 0 0
ODI 0 14 27 371 383 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 116 405 325 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 977 4707 6114 20145
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 447 6648 1753 204 25 0 0 0
OW 33 514 305 351 117 2 0 0
VODI 0 323 481 309 132 32 0 0
ODI 0 36 69 308 318 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 508 384 9 1
VCDI 0 0 0 59 1485 4940 6194 19735
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 485 6152 1541 242 5 0 0 0
OW 43 641 420 316 99 0 0 0
VODI 0 382 366 394 129 5 0 0
ODI 0 48 130 306 148 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 57 204 410 204 7 18
VCDI 0 0 0 143 932 5523 7039 19447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 520 6369 1518 250 6 0 0 0
OW 8 519 407 234 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 299 416 463 123 1 0 0
ODI 0 33 93 297 144 15 0 0
CDI 0 3 67 215 367 231 8 22
VCDI 0 0 13 146 999 5515 7038 19443

Date: 2015-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 498 5744 1224 280 11 0 0 0
OW 65 848 390 347 146 1 0 0
VODI 0 340 361 393 144 29 0 0
ODI 0 14 126 445 155 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 29 241 305 204 7 2
VCDI 0 0 3 91 853 4448 7275 20786
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 534 6054 1272 272 20 0 0 0
OW 29 568 319 313 96 1 0 0
VODI 0 324 420 439 176 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 69 407 174 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 31 245 272 195 8 10
VCDI 0 0 22 121 876 4479 7274 20778

Date: 2015-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 235 6565 1836 254 5 0 0 0
OW 0 89 445 514 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 130 458 248 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 101 337 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 17 439 517 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 634 3526 6784 22491
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 232 5833 1386 259 28 0 0 0
OW 3 548 520 292 111 6 0 0
VODI 0 269 386 531 217 56 0 0
ODI 0 4 78 205 215 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 28 42 313 198 4 0
VCDI 0 0 38 80 835 3811 6785 22491

Date: 2015-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 632 5939 1881 189 0 0 0 0
OW 0 305 563 394 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 198 446 110 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 129 279 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 76 427 251 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 135 678 4049 8148 20994
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 592 5152 1617 300 18 1 0 0
OW 40 779 425 340 83 6 0 0
VODI 0 318 506 318 254 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 64 128 189 105 2 0
CDI 0 0 28 83 225 230 26 0
VCDI 0 0 24 200 735 3913 8120 20994

Date: 2015-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 306 5693 1484 155 28 0 0 0
OW 0 794 582 408 116 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 178 326 222 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 63 177 275 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 116 472 359 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 619 4611 7878 20817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 306 5302 1517 361 100 1 0 0
OW 0 967 373 337 245 20 0 0
VODI 0 262 290 283 311 83 17 0
ODI 0 25 111 85 211 229 42 0
CDI 0 0 14 33 178 418 159 0
VCDI 0 0 2 146 687 4273 7661 20817


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