Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79840 15004 1667 390 63 0 0 0
OW 0 565 173 131 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 389 91 127 91 5 0 0
ODI 0 106 58 56 126 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 35 66 143 260 0 0
VCDI 0 0 3 72 235 1184 4232 3917
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77365 17084 1686 436 135 0 0 0
OW 0 543 234 137 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 405 83 111 111 7 0 0
ODI 0 227 113 105 117 57 0 0
CDI 0 15 59 45 110 263 14 0
VCDI 0 0 43 131 171 1541 3840 3860
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75586 17937 1489 482 24 0 0 0
OW 4 819 498 309 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 338 359 464 91 3 0 0
ODI 0 8 39 260 143 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 50 43 133 135 2 0
VCDI 0 0 2 70 164 1395 4077 4115
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73295 18970 1630 491 19 0 0 0
OW 16 851 389 207 75 0 0 0
VODI 2 474 786 490 133 8 0 0
ODI 0 52 84 99 335 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 28 36 219 251 7 0
VCDI 0 0 11 77 189 1521 4201 4108
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73297 18902 1669 514 23 0 0 0
OW 13 743 318 201 79 0 0 0
VODI 3 585 788 430 130 10 0 0
ODI 0 117 114 137 332 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 28 43 219 225 5 0
VCDI 0 0 11 75 187 1528 4203 4108

Date: 2015-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72790 18625 1840 456 81 0 0 0
OW 8 637 397 161 62 1 0 0
VODI 0 523 892 402 120 12 0 0
ODI 0 66 224 420 222 48 0 0
CDI 0 3 36 139 315 289 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 220 1215 4468 4401
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72772 18552 1862 458 84 0 0 0
OW 26 616 347 156 60 2 0 0
VODI 0 488 726 331 109 15 0 0
ODI 0 189 413 447 234 44 0 0
CDI 0 9 41 188 323 331 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 210 1173 4470 4401

Date: 2015-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73589 18719 2424 563 180 0 0 0
OW 0 265 436 326 34 1 0 0
VODI 0 4 142 669 213 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 262 492 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 87 386 340 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 269 2940 3120 3572
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73528 17637 1975 327 163 0 0 0
OW 61 756 213 158 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 409 490 357 91 2 0 0
ODI 0 165 245 515 320 11 0 0
CDI 0 21 90 453 526 69 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 124 443 3227 3120 3572

Date: 2015-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76930 15373 1552 433 215 5 0 0
OW 0 492 246 220 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 190 349 339 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 106 336 454 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 34 186 726 274 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 101 518 2495 3546 3802
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76920 14738 1325 302 178 5 0 0
OW 10 597 203 153 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 486 279 282 128 5 0 0
ODI 0 88 207 345 359 57 0 0
CDI 0 3 88 334 662 205 2 0
VCDI 0 0 26 209 977 2546 3544 3802

Date: 2015-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75332 16478 1692 473 205 0 0 0
OW 36 593 215 205 90 1 0 0
VODI 0 159 247 279 269 14 0 0
ODI 0 8 120 257 532 31 2 0
CDI 0 0 85 224 843 266 27 0
VCDI 0 0 10 155 834 1878 4135 3405
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75364 16095 1397 274 197 0 0 0
OW 4 508 213 150 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 466 258 255 105 3 0 0
ODI 0 146 219 286 327 8 0 0
CDI 0 15 186 236 748 55 10 0
VCDI 0 8 96 392 1383 2124 4154 3405


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