Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2685 7826 1512 172 39 13 0 0
OW 0 450 484 492 140 7 0 0
VODI 0 107 391 468 136 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 91 554 457 123 6 0
CDI 0 0 17 447 898 346 39 6
VCDI 0 0 0 60 832 2238 5720 19098
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1078 8699 1834 129 3 7 0 0
OW 0 389 379 245 167 14 0 0
VODI 0 203 356 321 399 19 0 0
ODI 0 6 87 350 268 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 455 647 278 20 2
VCDI 0 0 0 229 1375 2343 5787 19729
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1015 8775 1951 203 12 0 0 0
OW 0 371 421 244 20 2 0 0
VODI 0 66 207 419 227 11 0 0
ODI 0 2 59 287 621 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 235 935 612 5 1
VCDI 0 0 0 115 644 2900 6243 19219
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1037 8543 1639 144 11 0 0 0
OW 0 334 333 168 22 2 0 0
VODI 0 90 313 530 152 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 50 169 401 181 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 152 585 703 15 7
VCDI 0 0 0 92 860 3317 6121 19859
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1037 8530 1643 185 17 0 0 0
OW 0 344 286 192 27 1 0 0
VODI 0 91 356 462 220 36 0 0
ODI 0 2 51 174 370 187 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 142 592 761 15 5
VCDI 0 0 0 100 805 3244 6121 19861

Date: 2015-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 776 7614 1923 184 19 0 0 0
OW 0 499 464 96 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 361 428 97 14 0 0
ODI 0 3 26 308 362 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 164 365 570 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 1269 4214 5948 19955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 776 7659 1968 209 24 0 0 0
OW 0 433 364 90 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 338 389 171 5 0 0
ODI 0 16 104 295 350 122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 176 295 453 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 1272 4292 5947 19955

Date: 2015-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 663 6938 1904 242 22 0 0 0
OW 49 665 287 283 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 294 185 397 118 7 0 0
ODI 0 4 28 196 516 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 103 451 787 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 113 1123 4347 5991 20050
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 712 7132 1715 233 41 0 0 0
OW 0 452 320 204 89 6 0 0
VODI 0 281 306 315 102 3 0 0
ODI 0 36 63 208 403 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 198 362 323 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 176 1303 4755 5988 20050

Date: 2015-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 330 6402 1661 225 24 0 0 0
OW 3 531 417 327 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 231 430 481 155 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 157 287 250 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 188 485 255 20 4
VCDI 0 0 0 107 1237 5320 6929 19215
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 333 6719 1705 224 39 0 0 0
OW 0 322 410 277 185 1 0 0
VODI 0 125 436 545 176 19 0 0
ODI 0 3 84 278 185 47 0 0
CDI 0 2 47 113 354 375 17 9
VCDI 0 0 0 178 1353 5163 6932 19210

Date: 2015-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 509 5832 1440 316 15 0 0 0
OW 51 720 461 342 119 0 0 0
VODI 0 344 331 417 129 24 0 0
ODI 0 8 122 410 150 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 52 275 252 138 31 11
VCDI 0 0 1 271 954 4645 7822 19625
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 560 6616 1475 365 128 22 0 0
OW 0 217 444 291 84 33 0 0
VODI 0 70 317 482 136 76 0 0
ODI 0 1 113 290 138 96 1 0
CDI 0 0 42 225 167 269 66 0
VCDI 0 0 16 378 966 4360 7786 19636


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