Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-11-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82525 25904 4088 774 102 13 0 0
OW 0 1124 980 1287 286 7 0 0
VODI 0 804 660 1223 671 21 0 0
ODI 0 118 225 880 1093 348 45 0
CDI 0 0 60 535 1420 1531 143 22
VCDI 0 0 3 133 1258 7260 17673 33832
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78461 28230 4217 866 339 7 0 0
OW 0 986 835 631 617 24 0 0
VODI 0 767 550 687 1345 192 0 0
ODI 0 308 330 647 827 365 17 0
CDI 0 15 65 600 999 1408 176 17
VCDI 0 0 43 360 1614 5940 18393 36170
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76634 29435 4067 907 40 0 0 0
OW 4 1436 1250 855 118 2 0 0
VODI 0 467 731 1298 627 17 0 0
ODI 0 10 99 656 1291 187 2 0
CDI 0 0 56 288 1459 1699 106 17
VCDI 0 0 2 190 873 6046 16516 39663
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74332 29908 3975 701 30 0 0 0
OW 16 1395 1056 727 110 2 0 0
VODI 2 603 1282 1419 489 34 0 0
ODI 0 52 255 467 1216 277 0 0
CDI 0 0 39 251 1273 1715 35 16
VCDI 0 0 11 189 1391 7661 17713 38406
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74334 29878 4027 827 42 0 0 0
OW 13 1236 876 654 129 1 0 0
VODI 3 725 1369 1325 534 46 0 0
ODI 0 119 297 526 1194 325 0 0
CDI 0 0 38 235 1227 1686 30 13
VCDI 0 0 11 187 1383 7631 17718 38409

Date: 2015-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73567 28071 4417 714 100 0 0 0
OW 8 1350 1145 475 84 1 0 0
VODI 0 610 1377 1248 461 41 0 0
ODI 0 69 270 835 970 272 1 0
CDI 0 3 38 337 1051 1681 120 49
VCDI 0 0 0 89 1533 7937 17809 40315
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73549 28102 4523 793 108 0 0 0
OW 26 1202 949 501 125 6 0 0
VODI 0 585 1205 1014 506 52 0 0
ODI 0 205 529 890 929 291 0 0
CDI 0 9 41 392 992 1525 114 49
VCDI 0 0 0 108 1539 8058 17816 40315

Date: 2015-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74252 27628 4999 896 202 0 0 0
OW 49 1124 959 895 115 1 0 0
VODI 0 339 384 1431 593 13 0 0
ODI 0 4 39 518 1424 192 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 196 1064 2364 124 55
VCDI 0 0 0 143 1420 9849 16463 39312
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74240 26618 4142 584 204 0 0 0
OW 61 1511 804 511 122 6 0 0
VODI 0 744 995 1059 405 42 0 0
ODI 0 201 350 909 879 171 11 0
CDI 0 21 90 708 1257 894 141 64
VCDI 0 0 1 308 1951 11306 16435 39303

Date: 2015-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77260 23550 3649 719 239 5 0 0
OW 3 1416 971 853 256 0 0 0
VODI 0 372 790 1274 723 31 0 0
ODI 0 9 276 765 997 243 7 0
CDI 0 0 51 420 1502 1165 156 20
VCDI 0 0 0 218 2003 11941 18267 36897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77253 23178 3395 562 217 5 0 0
OW 10 1305 799 576 233 1 0 0
VODI 0 768 992 1154 450 48 0 0
ODI 0 91 373 816 679 237 3 0
CDI 0 5 152 641 1247 989 156 24
VCDI 0 0 26 500 2894 12105 18271 36893

Date: 2015-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75842 23385 3839 838 220 0 0 0
OW 87 1551 969 935 248 7 0 0
VODI 0 694 760 1169 656 108 0 0
ODI 0 16 255 942 1053 206 3 0
CDI 0 0 137 567 1344 816 152 64
VCDI 0 0 11 439 2075 9946 20859 36855
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75925 24099 3559 721 325 22 0 0
OW 4 826 931 683 115 40 0 0
VODI 0 551 789 1130 410 146 0 0
ODI 0 147 352 811 696 220 3 0
CDI 0 15 228 655 1225 656 136 9
VCDI 0 8 112 890 2825 9999 20875 36910


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