Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-10-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84239 28597 3966 802 89 11 0 0
OW 0 1551 993 743 184 59 0 0
VODI 0 557 1031 1626 632 174 0 0
ODI 0 127 430 1058 1080 409 5 0
CDI 0 0 40 433 1149 1403 116 22
VCDI 0 0 0 85 838 5999 15013 33587
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83743 28318 3715 571 241 0 0 0
OW 0 1189 918 515 224 39 0 0
VODI 0 518 1034 1734 596 98 0 0
ODI 0 229 326 1044 1062 445 10 0
CDI 0 6 203 639 872 1228 232 18
VCDI 0 0 37 371 1264 5877 15352 34380
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83923 27930 4304 1045 157 1 0 0
OW 0 1328 790 878 133 3 0 0
VODI 0 160 557 1737 649 35 0 0
ODI 0 1 95 835 1760 286 12 1
CDI 0 0 19 239 983 1275 315 29
VCDI 0 0 0 232 753 5259 16351 34973
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80803 28421 4646 688 155 5 0 0
OW 0 1319 981 903 244 4 0 0
VODI 0 753 688 1286 451 49 0 0
ODI 0 61 212 881 1370 271 49 1
CDI 0 0 44 485 1339 1443 157 32
VCDI 0 0 0 176 1090 6170 16702 35169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80803 28440 4512 701 182 5 0 0
OW 0 1308 776 476 195 2 0 0
VODI 0 697 668 1071 554 164 0 0
ODI 0 102 347 851 870 387 46 1
CDI 0 7 194 738 1564 996 171 25
VCDI 0 0 74 582 1284 6388 16691 35176

Date: 2015-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83285 25041 3413 894 127 4 0 0
OW 0 1018 818 935 617 6 0 0
VODI 0 671 711 1171 977 17 0 0
ODI 0 108 296 809 903 304 36 0
CDI 0 5 60 671 1151 1638 221 23
VCDI 0 0 16 175 1183 6247 17889 35608
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83285 25348 3534 886 206 2 0 0
OW 0 827 652 728 387 9 0 0
VODI 0 486 675 1158 908 110 0 0
ODI 0 151 311 701 815 440 16 0
CDI 0 27 62 594 909 1411 237 6
VCDI 0 4 80 588 1733 6244 17893 35625

Date: 2015-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77340 29353 4302 746 82 0 0 0
OW 8 1859 1084 798 118 3 0 0
VODI 0 345 458 1190 732 26 0 0
ODI 0 6 34 579 1577 410 6 0
CDI 0 0 29 268 1146 2288 206 7
VCDI 0 0 2 87 757 5425 16699 39078
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77348 29787 4181 852 241 1 0 0
OW 0 827 673 516 261 38 0 0
VODI 0 585 409 700 742 542 0 0
ODI 0 280 384 452 544 716 79 2
CDI 0 51 135 478 684 1105 286 31
VCDI 0 33 127 670 1940 5750 16546 39052

Date: 2015-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76173 28934 4136 842 102 0 0 0
OW 5 1232 1147 905 165 2 0 0
VODI 0 508 933 1443 614 33 0 0
ODI 0 11 115 449 1355 210 0 0
CDI 0 4 50 309 1578 1553 29 6
VCDI 0 0 25 174 1204 6373 16880 39549
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76178 29306 4720 1144 237 1 0 0
OW 0 722 667 725 296 39 0 0
VODI 0 393 441 829 683 240 0 0
ODI 0 225 264 493 806 654 0 0
CDI 0 41 221 438 942 998 52 61
VCDI 0 2 93 493 2054 6239 16857 39494

Date: 2015-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76374 26271 4528 679 58 0 0 0
OW 25 1145 1117 588 77 1 0 0
VODI 2 764 1182 1512 431 37 0 0
ODI 0 110 226 758 1029 282 0 0
CDI 0 8 24 264 1092 1735 159 28
VCDI 0 0 2 120 1363 7891 17027 40139
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76401 27279 5222 1182 239 67 16 0
OW 0 690 964 723 229 89 36 0
VODI 0 247 632 791 411 390 129 0
ODI 0 66 175 515 629 871 234 0
CDI 0 16 62 382 839 1359 238 20
VCDI 0 0 24 328 1703 7170 16533 40147


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