Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-10-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6234 1193 166 0 0 0 0
OW 0 583 993 688 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 702 1525 777 125 0 0
ODI 0 0 51 656 834 691 181 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 326 724 416 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 589 5210 9059
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 475 4991 662 99 15 0 0 0
OW 0 684 643 568 82 8 0 0
VODI 0 61 396 1482 1104 469 12 0
ODI 0 4 48 457 944 898 118 0
CDI 0 0 9 76 524 765 676 50
VCDI 0 0 0 26 119 640 4961 10016
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 377 5419 899 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 757 619 221 9 2 0 0
VODI 0 12 505 974 83 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 779 931 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 57 956 1764 5 5
VCDI 0 0 0 5 145 1716 6608 9027
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 212 4959 623 20 13 0 0 0
OW 0 962 468 251 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 447 853 216 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 66 556 579 135 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 264 841 1169 81 10
VCDI 0 0 0 1 341 2752 7057 9025
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 212 5453 758 109 26 0 0 0
OW 0 505 465 228 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 323 830 197 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 58 563 598 139 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 194 866 1178 91 10
VCDI 0 0 0 21 295 2737 7046 9025

Date: 2015-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5 3897 925 95 0 0 0 0
OW 0 410 480 459 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 527 902 393 139 0 0
ODI 0 0 35 317 684 362 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 477 910 136 22
VCDI 0 0 0 1 241 2368 7025 11060
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5 4061 1240 307 17 0 0 0
OW 0 280 373 424 143 12 0 0
VODI 0 16 342 791 330 187 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 281 686 326 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 486 945 119 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 172 2309 7041 11061

Date: 2015-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 173 4727 727 136 0 0 0 0
OW 0 506 435 365 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 129 792 284 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 157 842 168 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 305 987 191 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 1512 7331 12226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 173 4563 649 143 0 0 0 0
OW 0 563 294 276 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 106 281 559 402 42 0 0
ODI 0 1 67 428 611 321 29 0
CDI 0 0 6 44 373 569 188 8
VCDI 0 0 0 1 67 1742 7306 12234

Date: 2015-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4179 900 138 7 0 0 0
OW 0 460 360 414 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 146 253 558 325 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 10 139 697 120 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 368 870 209 27
VCDI 0 0 0 2 114 1585 7504 12616
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4038 880 150 36 0 0 0
OW 0 521 236 239 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 223 330 562 353 45 0 0
ODI 0 4 69 278 577 377 33 0
CDI 0 0 8 23 335 715 288 18
VCDI 0 0 0 5 160 1438 7395 12625

Date: 2015-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3074 909 212 0 0 0 0
OW 0 109 323 664 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 308 178 628 444 4 0 0
ODI 0 12 76 270 510 196 39 0
CDI 0 0 8 22 379 925 104 16
VCDI 0 0 0 1 191 3838 7721 10817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3064 853 148 49 0 0 0
OW 0 160 338 574 27 18 0 0
VODI 0 278 277 626 421 38 0 0
ODI 0 1 26 421 725 386 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 270 860 139 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 136 3661 7669 10817


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