Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-10-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84577 32665 5105 827 150 144 0 0
OW 0 1340 1641 1497 269 36 0 0
VODI 0 717 1067 2377 1463 229 0 0
ODI 0 70 143 899 1469 969 181 0
CDI 0 0 15 217 742 1626 447 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 296 3043 12940 29834
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84915 30317 4626 787 249 41 0 0
OW 0 1505 1526 1128 265 21 0 0
VODI 0 609 874 2285 1803 643 12 0
ODI 0 161 235 734 1469 1418 174 0
CDI 0 0 38 228 985 1603 914 50
VCDI 0 0 0 49 378 2453 13893 30660
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85414 30125 4733 756 98 58 0 0
OW 2 1579 1379 709 138 40 0 0
VODI 0 316 1024 1752 372 107 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 1277 1441 278 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 93 1900 2891 44 5
VCDI 0 0 0 38 306 3774 15924 30460
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84670 29194 3845 770 125 25 0 0
OW 0 1679 1184 783 178 30 0 0
VODI 0 517 1138 1690 531 91 0 0
ODI 0 51 292 1124 974 304 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 539 1521 1763 103 10
VCDI 0 0 0 5 773 5691 16592 30847
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84670 29812 4061 1000 148 20 0 0
OW 0 1114 1182 643 187 32 0 0
VODI 0 443 997 1646 465 93 0 0
ODI 0 72 215 1172 1022 305 1 0
CDI 0 0 13 425 1590 1757 116 10
VCDI 0 0 0 25 690 5697 16578 30847

Date: 2015-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82803 29103 4150 757 204 2 0 0
OW 0 1084 899 820 195 9 0 0
VODI 0 520 1270 1668 678 187 0 0
ODI 0 152 532 882 1145 534 13 0
CDI 0 0 92 399 911 1336 142 22
VCDI 0 0 4 202 1007 6098 16207 33021
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82803 29324 4536 975 203 0 0 0
OW 0 892 734 876 358 21 0 0
VODI 0 462 1097 1432 564 225 0 0
ODI 0 179 503 856 1082 462 14 0
CDI 0 2 63 395 995 1352 121 21
VCDI 0 0 14 194 938 6106 16227 33022

Date: 2015-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82703 30213 4380 774 154 0 0 0
OW 0 1068 1012 928 92 2 0 0
VODI 0 21 459 2050 672 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 67 809 1849 260 1 0
CDI 0 0 12 177 878 1664 199 16
VCDI 0 0 0 145 769 5003 15766 34874
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82703 29475 3986 792 197 1 0 0
OW 0 1204 594 562 304 13 0 0
VODI 0 426 604 1243 818 103 0 0
ODI 0 155 379 1042 955 396 29 0
CDI 0 37 256 725 905 898 205 9
VCDI 0 5 111 519 1235 5549 15732 34881

Date: 2015-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81604 28570 4874 850 213 0 0 0
OW 0 1353 898 906 155 1 0 0
VODI 0 431 629 1270 726 61 0 0
ODI 0 14 137 776 1638 290 3 0
CDI 0 0 28 410 1055 1451 219 30
VCDI 0 0 1 172 795 5042 16657 35789
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81604 28060 4750 921 285 7 0 0
OW 0 1412 597 544 298 79 0 0
VODI 0 793 633 939 668 210 0 0
ODI 0 95 276 626 1108 510 33 0
CDI 0 8 204 516 922 1028 308 20
VCDI 0 0 107 838 1301 5011 16538 35799

Date: 2015-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82525 25904 4088 774 102 13 0 0
OW 0 1124 980 1287 286 7 0 0
VODI 0 804 660 1223 671 21 0 0
ODI 0 118 225 880 1093 348 45 0
CDI 0 0 60 535 1420 1531 143 22
VCDI 0 0 3 133 1258 7260 17673 33832
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82525 25854 4029 871 316 14 0 0
OW 0 1290 871 988 202 55 0 0
VODI 0 744 678 1038 767 295 0 0
ODI 0 62 291 850 1085 644 86 0
CDI 0 0 67 377 758 1262 185 16
VCDI 0 0 80 708 1702 6910 17590 33838


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