Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-10-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 692 10730 1020 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1427 1190 434 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 556 1087 659 70 3 0
ODI 0 0 5 222 538 323 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 253 801 455 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 484 6247 4653
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 538 10055 1064 57 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1816 905 157 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 304 952 1064 260 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 334 776 187 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 392 835 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 741 4952 6431
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 401 8670 983 67 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1828 981 415 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 360 645 1316 282 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 37 207 872 190 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 301 1018 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1031 5508 6816
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 266 7151 766 76 0 0 0 0
OW 0 900 1003 404 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 323 980 1558 408 218 15 0
ODI 0 3 94 508 771 561 108 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 289 910 288 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 680 5674 8028
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 266 7435 974 124 2 0 0 0
OW 0 606 931 427 60 4 0 0
VODI 0 328 803 1323 387 199 14 0
ODI 0 8 135 650 709 561 109 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 341 820 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 785 5661 8028

Date: 2015-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 199 5691 767 92 0 0 0 0
OW 0 623 829 823 42 4 0 0
VODI 0 64 512 1638 850 363 7 0
ODI 0 0 44 549 1013 676 186 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 450 634 625 16
VCDI 0 0 0 12 102 660 5234 9296
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 199 5887 991 215 0 0 0 0
OW 0 447 641 816 123 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 392 1258 741 390 1 0
ODI 0 0 128 697 788 653 135 0
CDI 0 0 0 205 609 504 670 24
VCDI 0 0 0 4 196 790 5246 9288

Date: 2015-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 433 4820 1141 73 0 0 0 0
OW 0 446 873 425 11 2 0 0
VODI 0 52 141 1367 303 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 299 1735 207 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 526 2272 217 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 623 5867 10186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 426 4793 1068 158 4 0 0 0
OW 7 414 640 443 104 16 0 0
VODI 0 111 386 955 823 702 13 0
ODI 0 0 58 381 716 791 289 4
CDI 0 0 3 213 638 848 492 29
VCDI 0 0 0 15 337 750 5299 10156

Date: 2015-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 185 5199 1101 104 0 0 0 0
OW 0 817 445 206 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 92 702 644 135 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 113 736 622 137 8 0
CDI 0 0 2 246 763 1240 371 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 265 2275 6895 8745
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 185 5238 1067 113 3 0 0 0
OW 0 646 495 249 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 227 705 900 504 176 258 0
ODI 0 2 87 398 422 741 339 0
CDI 0 0 9 219 502 884 414 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 321 1851 6263 8745

Date: 2015-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 159 4401 721 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 863 483 284 53 27 0 0
VODI 0 137 369 799 355 79 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 467 653 197 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 150 645 902 69 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 301 3025 6042 10759
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 159 4845 897 274 112 15 0 0
OW 0 478 373 302 189 56 0 0
VODI 0 78 321 844 650 301 1 0
ODI 0 0 26 296 606 1156 435 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 225 953 493 25
VCDI 0 0 0 2 225 1749 5187 10756


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