Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-10-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2716 11832 3102 324 2 0 0 0
OW 0 563 467 480 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 348 417 945 733 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 159 728 973 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 208 1295 510 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 29 342 5152 14422
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2599 11781 2615 331 0 0 0 0
OW 0 767 435 457 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 380 246 607 268 16 0 0
ODI 0 5 118 753 853 233 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 345 1664 299 3
VCDI 0 0 0 2 46 875 5220 14862
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3555 11974 2454 322 2 0 0 0
OW 0 633 653 422 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 85 798 207 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 237 830 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 764 581 70 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 1398 5639 14980
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2695 11508 2882 204 2 0 0 0
OW 0 642 761 478 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 409 178 723 435 9 0 0
ODI 0 2 23 239 488 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 151 367 632 16 4
VCDI 0 0 0 36 92 1308 5373 16055
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2695 11633 2875 196 3 0 0 0
OW 0 454 740 422 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 473 207 792 311 15 0 0
ODI 0 1 27 228 567 168 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 160 396 488 20 8
VCDI 0 0 0 33 116 1411 5369 16051

Date: 2015-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2903 10614 2410 255 1 0 0 0
OW 0 594 719 602 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 287 442 678 543 109 0 0
ODI 0 137 62 184 389 369 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 276 563 123 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 186 1352 5478 16430
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2903 10658 2300 214 0 0 0 0
OW 0 523 801 516 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 233 438 791 438 25 0 0
ODI 0 218 94 201 462 473 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 275 506 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 232 1389 5478 16430

Date: 2015-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3122 10528 2654 267 2 0 0 0
OW 0 334 815 346 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 259 757 137 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 195 671 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 506 932 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 147 829 5621 17559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3122 9831 2127 208 2 0 0 0
OW 0 505 732 364 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 334 612 578 428 47 0 0
ODI 0 258 259 339 430 595 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 279 351 254 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 308 843 5349 17559

Date: 2015-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2710 9777 2349 305 5 0 0 0
OW 0 530 731 325 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 259 560 717 181 9 0 0
ODI 0 4 55 395 245 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 710 526 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 185 1435 6029 17627
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2710 9799 2130 251 5 0 0 0
OW 0 243 532 287 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 312 641 760 306 35 0 0
ODI 0 173 302 463 454 217 7 0
CDI 0 43 90 89 283 691 209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 289 1060 5818 17627

Date: 2015-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2828 9368 1741 373 25 0 0 0
OW 0 381 421 331 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 261 554 716 161 35 0 0
ODI 0 109 294 470 322 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 40 192 378 224 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 427 1750 5773 18429
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2828 9464 1826 387 26 0 0 0
OW 0 263 234 344 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 408 780 318 64 0 0
ODI 0 184 390 394 394 186 23 0
CDI 0 117 190 236 382 476 144 0
VCDI 0 0 2 1 213 1376 5646 18429


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