Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-10-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85912 37382 5653 795 70 0 0 0
OW 0 1994 1756 1096 121 2 0 0
VODI 0 439 1010 2250 1477 133 3 0
ODI 0 0 15 508 1439 1311 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 813 2326 997 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 709 1716 14848 22181
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86223 36014 5003 833 142 20 0 0
OW 0 2616 1473 743 154 14 0 0
VODI 0 690 1273 1842 628 61 0 0
ODI 0 5 161 1217 1775 449 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 1041 2626 424 3
VCDI 0 0 0 2 322 2786 13035 25368
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86190 35550 4882 798 138 1 0 0
OW 0 2512 1764 1003 208 20 0 0
VODI 0 458 752 2302 645 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 37 504 1903 311 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1256 2090 241 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 3090 14330 25932
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83673 34734 5353 739 169 80 0 0
OW 0 1714 1861 1020 181 35 0 0
VODI 0 751 1234 2447 973 298 15 0
ODI 0 5 130 842 1442 747 108 0
CDI 0 0 5 200 883 1743 318 4
VCDI 0 0 0 36 165 3185 13821 28137
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83673 35169 5567 806 201 90 0 0
OW 0 1215 1778 973 183 52 0 0
VODI 0 811 1069 2279 853 271 14 0
ODI 0 9 169 965 1427 801 109 0
CDI 0 0 0 228 958 1496 339 8
VCDI 0 0 0 33 191 3378 13800 28133

Date: 2015-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84391 31499 4905 827 231 106 0 0
OW 0 1478 1604 1537 218 53 0 0
VODI 0 564 1008 2406 1502 597 7 0
ODI 0 137 207 771 1499 1173 211 0
CDI 0 0 7 241 803 1568 751 16
VCDI 0 0 0 38 371 3125 14997 28200
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84391 31729 5019 900 242 99 0 0
OW 0 1219 1496 1451 267 52 0 0
VODI 0 511 886 2142 1298 556 1 0
ODI 0 219 323 929 1343 1271 165 0
CDI 0 0 7 369 955 1331 790 24
VCDI 0 0 0 29 519 3313 15010 28192

Date: 2015-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85471 30317 5401 711 93 27 0 0
OW 0 931 1864 976 103 28 0 0
VODI 0 119 433 2351 583 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 576 2612 347 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 1201 3902 225 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 196 2490 14065 31941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85464 29251 4741 775 198 69 0 0
OW 7 1082 1416 912 213 47 0 0
VODI 0 694 1069 1660 1344 839 13 0
ODI 0 340 427 782 1246 1486 307 4
CDI 0 0 47 422 1028 1391 747 29
VCDI 0 0 0 94 759 3002 13232 31911

Date: 2015-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84211 29979 4919 842 88 45 0 0
OW 0 1596 1258 685 133 41 0 0
VODI 0 441 1378 1499 468 111 0 0
ODI 0 9 174 1255 1014 251 8 0
CDI 0 0 2 381 1692 2210 414 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 456 4600 16534 30342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84211 30045 4612 830 145 109 0 0
OW 0 1024 1070 598 171 84 0 0
VODI 0 650 1412 1738 880 307 258 0
ODI 0 251 460 943 964 1061 362 0
CDI 0 55 175 429 888 1747 665 0
VCDI 0 0 2 136 803 3950 15671 30342

Date: 2015-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84239 28597 3966 802 89 11 0 0
OW 0 1551 993 743 184 59 0 0
VODI 0 557 1031 1626 632 174 0 0
ODI 0 127 430 1058 1080 409 5 0
CDI 0 0 40 433 1149 1403 116 22
VCDI 0 0 0 85 838 5999 15013 33587
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84239 29023 4187 1054 248 50 0 0
OW 0 1045 690 737 292 139 0 0
VODI 0 268 770 1696 1071 476 1 0
ODI 0 289 445 744 1067 1420 467 0
CDI 0 179 250 350 670 1637 664 25
VCDI 0 28 118 166 624 4333 14002 33584


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