Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-10-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82545 14592 1310 564 265 5 0 0
OW 0 56 92 50 120 64 0 0
VODI 0 0 59 108 83 100 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 72 90 98 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 170 302 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 59 450 3109 4591
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82154 14601 1456 557 328 22 0 0
OW 0 45 88 55 114 42 7 0
VODI 0 0 55 109 119 89 9 0
ODI 0 0 16 50 140 91 16 0
CDI 0 0 1 62 121 314 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 38 447 3187 4724
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82773 14046 1770 476 67 2 0 0
OW 0 0 52 145 65 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 15 130 159 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 217 24 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 213 227 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 918 3573 4034
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82913 14739 1248 369 23 0 0 0
OW 0 14 103 150 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 44 204 86 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 101 180 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 62 334 131 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 464 1516 4011 2348
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82913 14744 1251 419 29 0 0 0
OW 0 11 105 133 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 40 176 106 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 100 188 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 59 360 149 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 399 1494 4011 2348

Date: 2015-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83046 14341 1363 395 124 0 0 0
OW 0 22 127 131 100 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 63 144 143 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 124 186 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 382 238 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 361 1062 3257 3415
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83046 14331 1358 449 172 0 0 0
OW 0 30 123 99 106 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 70 133 149 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 113 191 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 342 230 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 336 1069 3260 3415

Date: 2015-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82896 14359 1375 336 116 41 0 0
OW 0 39 147 220 72 20 0 0
VODI 0 1 10 220 167 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 327 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 210 519 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 845 3297 3760
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82896 14339 1326 380 158 41 0 0
OW 0 53 112 127 106 29 0 0
VODI 0 7 82 152 125 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 113 158 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 261 171 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 88 1177 3312 3760

Date: 2015-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81340 15723 1581 344 144 34 0 0
OW 0 64 161 189 89 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 27 209 146 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 221 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 234 216 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1029 3296 3806
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81340 15675 1483 313 140 34 0 0
OW 0 102 107 109 47 32 0 0
VODI 0 10 151 138 96 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 182 141 25 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 87 292 161 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 139 1094 3311 3806

Date: 2015-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81722 15331 1365 405 150 144 0 0
OW 0 245 58 118 127 36 0 0
VODI 0 150 63 106 124 100 0 0
ODI 0 2 70 63 108 99 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 86 128 285 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 1238 2670 4034
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81722 15206 1291 318 134 147 0 0
OW 0 200 49 74 51 29 0 0
VODI 0 166 50 111 78 44 0 0
ODI 0 92 50 82 85 46 0 0
CDI 0 46 74 63 159 190 0 2
VCDI 0 18 48 130 197 1446 2670 4032


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