Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-10-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2520 12659 1082 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 856 649 265 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 329 771 163 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 24 287 433 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 104 553 424 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 143 2128 7335 1088
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1369 13006 1287 61 0 0 0 0
OW 0 624 690 665 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 195 892 382 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 258 435 155 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 456 554 251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1135 5532 3860
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1588 11810 1114 61 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1270 930 335 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 254 1202 203 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 255 798 60 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 401 883 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 530 4879 5334
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 569 11487 1047 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1622 936 332 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 441 997 489 116 4 0
ODI 0 0 5 196 569 303 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 223 824 506 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 323 4633 6186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 569 11684 1238 154 3 0 0 0
OW 0 1341 831 416 74 11 0 0
VODI 0 167 346 856 549 155 4 0
ODI 0 0 14 185 511 368 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 191 715 647 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 317 4470 6186

Date: 2015-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 916 10136 980 80 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1719 1063 225 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 271 746 1076 473 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 286 634 253 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 416 697 259 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 615 5975 5140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 915 10286 1143 110 0 0 0 0
OW 1 1428 914 302 35 2 0 0
VODI 0 409 721 1032 510 92 0 0
ODI 0 3 20 221 667 290 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 320 645 315 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 583 5895 5140

Date: 2015-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 574 9430 1369 88 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1631 1069 408 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 255 529 1185 66 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 200 906 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 222 1219 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 627 6817 5303
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 574 9778 1226 102 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1165 827 337 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 373 858 1199 253 153 3 0
ODI 0 0 57 236 774 391 42 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 151 853 254 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 560 6589 5303

Date: 2015-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 415 7644 857 79 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1488 968 302 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 409 1080 1373 320 142 0 0
ODI 0 11 76 374 798 325 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 352 886 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 1001 5586 7324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 415 7988 1152 140 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1260 1003 510 75 7 0 0
VODI 0 277 714 1114 460 223 0 0
ODI 0 27 112 367 728 595 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 246 899 260 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 630 5500 7324

Date: 2015-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6234 1193 166 0 0 0 0
OW 0 583 993 688 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 702 1525 777 125 0 0
ODI 0 0 51 656 834 691 181 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 326 724 416 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 589 5210 9059
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5902 1521 614 44 0 0 0
OW 0 812 562 856 287 4 0 0
VODI 0 270 820 1242 896 343 15 0
ODI 0 0 36 316 722 845 196 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 89 651 699 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 41 286 4897 9059


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