Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-10-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4718 14282 2697 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1030 697 622 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 349 475 1253 296 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 482 922 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 182 488 581 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 468 2165 4825 9226
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4564 13725 2445 180 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1025 627 622 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 368 707 1384 536 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 271 890 248 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 358 832 11 10
VCDI 0 0 0 28 211 1930 5434 9369
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4423 12513 2474 175 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1289 594 523 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 278 1327 642 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 1226 383 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 226 1233 207 1
VCDI 0 0 0 14 27 1390 5530 11146
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3049 12339 2789 382 0 0 0 0
OW 0 572 497 399 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 358 293 1092 835 160 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 848 859 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 185 1085 535 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 31 415 4951 14002
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3049 12301 2954 453 0 0 0 0
OW 0 572 401 495 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 396 224 955 921 220 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 771 896 42 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 175 891 534 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 33 512 4941 14002

Date: 2015-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3560 10859 2596 395 8 0 0 0
OW 0 671 603 401 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 352 295 940 464 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 273 875 813 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 162 1692 369 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 37 459 4901 15001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3560 10970 2766 503 10 0 0 0
OW 0 456 432 390 112 0 0 0
VODI 0 456 306 888 531 85 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 214 772 1012 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 176 1374 390 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 35 523 4865 15001

Date: 2015-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2368 13055 2863 274 0 0 0 0
OW 0 493 649 489 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 40 891 232 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 228 1000 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 429 1410 53 3
VCDI 0 0 0 1 29 813 5686 14801
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2368 12425 2606 238 4 0 0 0
OW 0 590 470 309 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 563 429 640 259 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 47 630 678 158 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 550 1034 347 18
VCDI 0 0 0 1 116 1048 5377 14786

Date: 2015-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3174 11672 2695 261 1 0 0 0
OW 0 646 730 431 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 222 128 871 250 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 243 690 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 586 528 51 6
VCDI 0 0 0 9 121 1329 5673 15423
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3174 11506 2531 283 5 0 0 0
OW 0 676 582 307 58 2 0 0
VODI 0 358 422 671 247 72 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 496 662 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 99 576 518 202 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 120 1227 5522 15415

Date: 2015-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2855 11100 2547 256 0 0 0 0
OW 0 512 590 691 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 400 302 746 562 4 0 0
ODI 0 68 22 180 527 179 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 81 288 617 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 182 1216 5060 16741
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2855 11239 2669 359 15 0 0 0
OW 0 529 489 577 123 0 0 0
VODI 0 312 306 764 304 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 259 758 333 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 290 647 89 6
VCDI 0 0 0 3 116 952 5002 16735


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