Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-10-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89783 41533 5089 713 265 5 0 0
OW 0 1942 1438 937 150 64 0 0
VODI 0 386 863 2132 542 103 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 841 1445 188 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 340 1211 1307 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 670 4743 15269 14905
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88087 41332 5188 798 328 22 0 0
OW 0 1694 1405 1342 158 42 7 0
VODI 0 432 957 2385 1037 114 9 0
ODI 0 0 44 579 1465 494 33 0
CDI 0 0 1 223 935 1700 301 10
VCDI 0 0 0 32 276 3512 14153 17953
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88784 38369 5358 712 67 2 0 0
OW 0 2559 1576 1003 94 6 0 0
VODI 0 118 547 2659 1004 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 403 2241 467 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 840 2343 320 1
VCDI 0 0 0 14 114 2838 13982 20514
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86531 38565 5084 838 23 0 0 0
OW 0 2208 1536 881 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 445 778 2293 1410 276 4 0
ODI 0 0 19 408 1597 1168 61 0
CDI 0 0 1 79 742 2040 1041 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 508 2254 13595 22536
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86531 38729 5443 1026 32 0 0 0
OW 0 1924 1337 1044 142 11 0 0
VODI 0 565 610 1987 1576 376 4 0
ODI 0 0 27 364 1470 1273 94 0
CDI 0 0 1 79 726 1755 1181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 455 2323 13422 22536

Date: 2015-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87522 35336 4939 870 132 0 0 0
OW 0 2412 1793 757 197 0 0 0
VODI 0 624 1104 2160 1080 77 0 0
ODI 0 0 31 683 1695 1078 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 960 2627 649 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 431 2136 14133 23556
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87521 35587 5267 1062 182 0 0 0
OW 1 1914 1469 791 253 2 0 0
VODI 0 868 1097 2053 1190 177 0 0
ODI 0 3 34 548 1630 1315 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 838 2249 723 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 402 2175 14020 23556

Date: 2015-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85838 36844 5607 698 116 41 0 0
OW 0 2163 1865 1117 74 20 0 0
VODI 0 286 579 2296 465 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 461 2233 170 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 861 3148 153 3
VCDI 0 0 0 1 33 2285 15800 23864
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85838 36542 5158 720 162 41 0 0
OW 0 1808 1409 773 197 29 0 0
VODI 0 943 1369 1991 637 174 3 0
ODI 0 0 116 979 1610 591 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 962 2058 615 18
VCDI 0 0 0 1 214 2785 15278 23849

Date: 2015-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84929 35039 5133 684 145 34 0 0
OW 0 2198 1859 922 148 26 0 0
VODI 0 631 1235 2453 716 169 0 0
ODI 0 11 85 693 1709 424 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 1172 1630 251 6
VCDI 0 0 0 9 161 3359 14555 26553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84929 35169 5166 736 145 34 0 0
OW 0 2038 1692 926 180 41 0 0
VODI 0 645 1287 1923 803 324 0 0
ODI 0 27 166 1045 1531 714 27 0
CDI 0 0 1 200 1114 1578 484 14
VCDI 0 0 0 2 278 2951 14333 26545

Date: 2015-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84577 32665 5105 827 150 144 0 0
OW 0 1340 1641 1497 269 36 0 0
VODI 0 717 1067 2377 1463 229 0 0
ODI 0 70 143 899 1469 969 181 0
CDI 0 0 15 217 742 1626 447 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 296 3043 12940 29834
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84577 32347 5481 1291 193 147 0 0
OW 0 1541 1100 1507 461 33 0 0
VODI 0 748 1176 2117 1278 471 15 0
ODI 0 92 92 657 1565 1224 196 0
CDI 0 46 74 152 538 1488 788 8
VCDI 0 18 48 146 354 2684 12569 29826


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