Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-10-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80695 17358 1263 211 41 2 0 0
OW 0 27 117 66 56 10 0 0
VODI 0 3 53 128 85 13 6 0
ODI 0 0 12 102 115 18 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 211 226 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 54 386 2696 5063
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79767 17762 1648 247 13 3 0 0
OW 0 5 87 91 49 10 4 0
VODI 0 0 45 125 99 8 9 0
ODI 0 0 3 95 123 15 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 203 182 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 369 3215 4779
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75138 21220 3022 456 87 0 0 0
OW 0 0 49 184 79 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 164 116 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 192 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 317 252 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 545 2384 4759
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82947 14477 1265 569 242 0 0 0
OW 0 55 127 54 122 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 50 105 135 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 93 139 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 254 194 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 98 591 4158 3272
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82947 14523 1280 573 268 0 0 0
OW 0 9 106 58 110 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 53 90 134 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 92 122 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 247 205 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 109 586 4156 3272

Date: 2015-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82513 14351 1368 600 322 13 0 0
OW 0 0 88 77 112 62 3 0
VODI 0 0 25 130 102 141 10 0
ODI 0 0 2 48 104 122 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 122 325 71 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 353 2799 5137
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82513 14351 1390 611 332 30 0 0
OW 0 0 56 88 95 97 4 0
VODI 0 0 29 94 111 94 10 0
ODI 0 0 8 50 92 107 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 123 281 63 4
VCDI 0 0 0 3 39 407 2812 5137

Date: 2015-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82808 14197 1442 509 121 7 0 0
OW 0 0 66 116 81 17 1 0
VODI 0 0 8 130 135 32 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 187 59 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 110 491 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 300 3365 4780
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82808 14187 1362 512 200 27 6 0
OW 0 9 77 74 96 48 10 0
VODI 0 1 49 109 103 74 17 0
ODI 0 0 21 41 113 69 26 0
CDI 0 0 7 72 107 268 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 30 420 3298 4780

Date: 2015-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82850 14511 1442 349 56 0 0 0
OW 0 9 71 117 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 153 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 56 199 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 224 217 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 102 832 3184 4372
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82850 14465 1395 385 165 0 0 0
OW 0 32 79 84 107 3 0 0
VODI 0 17 33 138 134 51 0 0
ODI 0 6 27 43 165 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 58 159 183 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 76 753 3183 4372

Date: 2015-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82504 14820 1531 399 68 0 0 0
OW 0 4 99 182 54 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 37 218 85 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 127 173 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 352 230 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 663 890 3449 3106
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82504 14797 1548 497 110 0 0 0
OW 0 27 60 198 92 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 42 159 210 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 53 207 71 7 0
CDI 0 0 1 73 278 136 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 498 916 3365 3106


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