Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-10-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87244 48310 4883 330 44 2 0 0
OW 83 1431 1238 906 89 10 0 0
VODI 0 257 847 1957 837 60 6 0
ODI 0 2 134 727 856 294 15 0
CDI 0 0 15 209 909 1233 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 346 2432 11137 19880
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85055 48278 5525 374 23 3 0 0
OW 0 1862 1297 813 112 11 4 0
VODI 0 410 868 1896 925 46 9 0
ODI 0 19 153 645 1029 250 21 0
CDI 0 0 21 290 893 1011 306 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 364 2090 13252 19137
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79659 52383 7779 782 100 0 0 0
OW 0 841 1290 1218 125 1 0 0
VODI 0 23 322 1719 873 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 380 1602 470 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 1028 1445 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 204 2516 10951 21115
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89135 42568 5580 694 242 0 0 0
OW 0 1622 1626 1009 135 7 0 0
VODI 0 115 618 2073 633 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 24 609 1591 324 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 148 1215 1431 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 459 4055 14057 16955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89129 43126 6005 797 268 0 0 0
OW 6 1095 1188 971 141 8 0 0
VODI 0 84 626 1887 688 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 724 1500 513 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 153 1167 1188 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 511 4060 14042 16955

Date: 2015-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89783 39852 5663 900 322 13 0 0
OW 16 1654 1645 1152 152 62 3 0
VODI 0 541 887 2221 751 156 10 0
ODI 0 0 32 752 1396 330 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 250 931 1595 224 4
VCDI 0 0 0 28 588 4144 13212 17742
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89799 40424 5954 1019 333 30 0 0
OW 0 1298 1329 1021 150 97 4 0
VODI 0 324 884 2046 775 110 10 0
ODI 0 1 53 841 1305 608 30 0
CDI 0 0 7 339 863 1243 218 4
VCDI 0 0 0 37 714 4212 13224 17742

Date: 2015-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88816 39686 5306 751 121 7 0 0
OW 0 2018 1866 951 102 17 1 0
VODI 0 35 372 2980 567 37 11 0
ODI 0 0 1 379 2430 301 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 663 3063 119 17
VCDI 0 0 0 21 58 2199 14258 19843
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88816 40001 5488 903 224 27 6 0
OW 0 1451 1067 1011 283 58 10 0
VODI 0 287 921 2221 1134 282 17 0
ODI 0 0 58 677 1203 911 64 0
CDI 0 0 11 275 869 1485 528 12
VCDI 0 0 0 32 228 2861 13779 19848

Date: 2015-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88294 38108 4920 661 56 0 0 0
OW 0 2618 1445 839 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 177 795 2328 1518 85 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 440 1663 1029 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 661 2124 824 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 165 1759 13358 22894
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88294 39088 5301 933 218 2 0 0
OW 0 1462 1086 818 408 98 0 0
VODI 0 346 724 1830 1095 587 9 0
ODI 0 7 40 569 1350 1113 216 0
CDI 0 0 21 159 845 1354 1082 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 279 1843 12932 22894

Date: 2015-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85912 37382 5653 795 70 0 0 0
OW 0 1994 1756 1096 121 2 0 0
VODI 0 439 1010 2250 1477 133 3 0
ODI 0 0 15 508 1439 1311 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 813 2326 997 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 709 1716 14848 22181
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85912 38321 6445 1429 266 38 0 0
OW 0 1293 1160 902 400 192 0 0
VODI 0 201 791 1700 1341 703 49 0
ODI 0 0 37 542 1181 1158 352 0
CDI 0 0 1 135 796 1366 1126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 645 2031 14353 22181


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