Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79933 18047 1181 423 136 21 2 0
OW 0 9 91 108 67 49 3 0
VODI 0 2 26 143 116 88 13 0
ODI 0 0 4 49 132 188 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 64 448 287 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 115 2703 4614
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81741 16177 1377 338 53 4 0 0
OW 0 27 103 105 85 4 5 0
VODI 0 6 36 159 166 24 7 0
ODI 0 0 17 60 196 92 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 167 406 107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 325 2653 4565
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83705 14536 1141 316 27 0 0 0
OW 0 11 89 130 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 27 219 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 225 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 361 186 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 142 538 2810 4376
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83256 15149 954 207 31 0 0 0
OW 0 28 103 81 54 5 0 0
VODI 0 2 54 156 79 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 149 11 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 231 243 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 354 3068 4649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83256 15146 952 214 22 0 0 0
OW 0 31 95 72 54 6 0 0
VODI 0 2 64 152 77 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 136 13 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 232 180 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 416 3073 4649

Date: 2015-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79910 18302 1049 178 36 0 0 0
OW 0 14 116 59 65 6 4 0
VODI 0 1 75 110 78 17 8 0
ODI 0 0 9 89 107 29 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 184 200 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 279 2824 5197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79910 18301 1056 182 31 0 0 0
OW 0 13 102 59 55 11 4 0
VODI 0 3 73 98 96 12 9 0
ODI 0 0 18 94 93 26 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 171 126 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 356 2836 5197

Date: 2015-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79747 18507 1248 280 8 0 0 0
OW 0 2 46 225 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 180 124 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 159 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 322 375 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 60 518 4256 2881
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79747 18465 1136 196 3 0 0 0
OW 0 35 72 138 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 69 159 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 148 91 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 88 207 90 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 329 828 4247 2881

Date: 2015-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78086 19155 1779 592 112 0 0 0
OW 0 26 115 111 92 3 0 0
VODI 0 1 29 154 116 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 61 191 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 311 176 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 579 2951 4345
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78086 19126 1759 567 93 0 0 0
OW 0 42 71 95 111 5 0 0
VODI 0 13 72 98 104 13 0 0
ODI 0 1 20 99 125 28 1 0
CDI 0 0 2 47 236 71 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 208 681 2947 4345

Date: 2015-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82545 14592 1310 564 265 5 0 0
OW 0 56 92 50 120 64 0 0
VODI 0 0 59 108 83 100 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 72 90 98 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 170 302 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 59 450 3109 4591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82545 14608 1349 523 270 21 0 0
OW 0 30 62 102 76 50 0 0
VODI 0 10 47 94 112 69 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 63 108 75 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 50 130 214 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 91 590 3153 4591


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