Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3810 14497 867 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 832 440 248 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 333 554 64 1 3 0
ODI 0 0 23 300 318 41 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 439 570 357 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 258 4134 3766
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3423 14182 811 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1162 387 118 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 220 468 499 87 4 0 0
ODI 0 7 43 372 326 69 3 0
CDI 0 0 4 80 445 495 282 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 377 4078 4088
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2876 15149 1083 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 266 517 221 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 213 586 140 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 174 480 68 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 245 722 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 274 4335 4476
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2507 14615 1189 41 3 0 0 0
OW 0 363 577 222 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 199 688 141 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 243 466 76 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 303 716 210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 698 4195 4493
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2507 14680 1230 51 3 0 0 0
OW 0 312 500 217 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 236 602 132 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 24 325 459 62 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 304 682 233 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 744 4168 4493

Date: 2015-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2393 14110 1168 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 603 404 214 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 285 546 128 5 0 0
ODI 0 4 62 353 307 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 62 460 547 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 607 4419 5040
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2393 14124 1133 89 2 0 0 0
OW 0 558 341 174 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 368 453 100 6 0 0
ODI 0 19 77 381 270 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 131 435 505 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 650 4391 5040

Date: 2015-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1596 14387 1551 119 24 0 0 0
OW 0 181 464 298 24 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 117 655 147 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 145 514 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 302 752 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 712 4916 5077
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1596 13759 1234 132 34 1 0 0
OW 0 640 361 209 56 5 0 0
VODI 0 145 406 375 176 59 0 0
ODI 0 25 103 313 225 164 5 0
CDI 0 2 28 184 327 399 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 198 912 4858 5077

Date: 2015-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1521 13595 1499 73 1 0 0 0
OW 0 384 692 333 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 156 641 241 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 188 535 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 413 490 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 1586 4341 5088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1521 13042 1398 148 46 3 0 0
OW 0 668 393 113 42 15 0 0
VODI 0 256 348 476 170 21 0 0
ODI 0 28 146 232 326 122 7 0
CDI 0 2 69 224 274 356 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 87 424 1674 4319 5088

Date: 2015-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2520 12659 1082 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 856 649 265 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 329 771 163 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 24 287 433 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 104 553 424 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 143 2128 7335 1088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2520 12043 1117 178 26 0 0 0
OW 0 886 272 111 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 536 382 386 75 5 0 0
ODI 0 81 168 312 252 65 0 0
CDI 0 6 129 237 403 352 56 0
VCDI 0 0 17 290 553 2219 7307 1088


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