Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2440 17937 4078 658 61 0 0 0
OW 0 349 629 1025 314 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 148 623 366 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 310 369 116 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 397 401 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 195 1141 4060 10126
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2103 17875 3932 454 10 0 0 0
OW 0 338 787 1244 205 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 194 801 373 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 253 502 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 424 502 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 62 1057 4030 10513
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2624 17216 3434 210 0 0 0 0
OW 0 442 1338 993 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 171 1373 406 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 660 146 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 316 610 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 29 865 4074 10686
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2978 17247 2543 135 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1060 842 821 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 120 496 1302 615 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 33 256 386 228 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 303 384 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 148 864 3951 10870
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2978 17717 2735 200 11 0 0 0
OW 0 617 750 867 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 409 1166 655 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 282 300 254 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 265 295 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 192 891 3931 10870

Date: 2015-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3379 16369 3246 44 2 0 0 0
OW 23 1076 742 491 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 316 407 1185 650 6 0 0
ODI 0 14 103 317 344 276 0 0
CDI 0 0 19 156 238 451 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 296 1226 4435 9909
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3398 16701 3287 144 10 0 0 0
OW 4 888 723 540 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 182 372 1086 695 84 0 0
ODI 0 4 120 222 262 294 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 185 160 386 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 91 358 1195 4387 9909

Date: 2015-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1548 18625 3558 127 0 0 0 0
OW 0 385 806 655 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 90 1290 345 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 151 1330 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 318 706 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 98 804 4268 10630
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1548 18049 3280 134 3 0 0 0
OW 0 805 742 647 103 2 0 0
VODI 0 155 353 981 1053 69 0 0
ODI 0 1 78 217 453 261 6 0
CDI 0 0 1 220 137 324 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 344 906 4146 10630

Date: 2015-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2693 17175 2929 107 0 0 0 0
OW 0 701 812 769 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 213 975 439 114 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 166 756 512 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 302 678 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 155 1095 4565 10476
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2693 17005 2823 158 0 0 0 0
OW 0 698 654 628 129 74 0 0
VODI 0 190 397 690 839 715 0 0
ODI 0 0 80 236 196 493 128 0
CDI 0 0 0 253 121 195 304 0
VCDI 0 0 0 91 394 922 4284 10476

Date: 2015-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4718 14282 2697 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1030 697 622 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 349 475 1253 296 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 482 922 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 182 488 581 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 468 2165 4825 9226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4718 14510 2676 144 3 0 0 0
OW 0 825 621 805 113 0 0 0
VODI 0 320 426 965 901 172 0 0
ODI 0 6 117 241 487 547 0 0
CDI 0 0 32 254 194 403 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 228 479 1628 4811 9226


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