Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-09-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86183 50481 6126 1119 197 21 2 0
OW 0 1190 1160 1381 402 49 3 0
VODI 0 79 507 1320 546 95 16 0
ODI 0 0 29 659 819 345 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 134 900 1419 659 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 222 1514 10897 18506
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87267 48234 6120 817 63 4 0 0
OW 0 1527 1277 1467 290 4 5 0
VODI 0 227 698 1459 626 28 7 0
ODI 0 7 60 685 1024 261 15 0
CDI 0 0 4 123 1036 1403 447 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 149 1759 10761 19166
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89205 46901 5658 568 27 0 0 0
OW 0 719 1944 1344 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 411 2178 649 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 354 1365 235 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 922 1518 254 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 173 1677 11219 19538
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88741 47011 4686 383 34 0 0 0
OW 0 1451 1522 1124 95 5 0 0
VODI 0 180 749 2146 835 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 58 599 1001 315 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 98 837 1343 407 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 205 1916 11214 20012
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88741 47543 4917 465 36 0 0 0
OW 0 960 1345 1156 125 6 0 0
VODI 0 139 709 1920 864 68 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 717 895 329 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 801 1157 443 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 286 2051 11172 20012

Date: 2015-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85682 48781 5463 275 38 0 0 0
OW 23 1693 1262 764 95 6 4 0
VODI 0 422 767 1841 856 28 8 0
ODI 0 18 174 759 758 376 11 0
CDI 0 0 20 272 882 1198 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 376 2112 11678 20146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85701 49126 5476 415 43 0 0 0
OW 4 1459 1166 773 139 11 4 0
VODI 0 306 813 1637 891 102 9 0
ODI 0 23 215 697 625 389 12 0
CDI 0 0 16 373 766 1017 247 0
VCDI 0 0 0 91 541 2201 11614 20146

Date: 2015-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82891 51519 6357 526 32 0 0 0
OW 0 568 1316 1178 59 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 210 2125 616 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 357 2003 144 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 942 1833 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 163 2034 13440 18588
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82891 50273 5650 462 40 1 0 0
OW 0 1480 1175 994 177 7 0 0
VODI 0 309 828 1515 1287 128 0 0
ODI 0 26 200 678 769 432 11 0
CDI 0 2 30 492 671 813 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 107 871 2646 13251 18588

Date: 2015-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82300 49925 6207 772 113 0 0 0
OW 0 1111 1619 1213 130 3 0 0
VODI 0 35 398 1770 796 141 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 415 1482 640 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 1026 1344 196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 291 3260 11857 19909
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82300 49173 5980 873 139 3 0 0
OW 0 1408 1118 836 282 94 0 0
VODI 0 459 817 1264 1113 749 0 0
ODI 0 29 246 567 647 643 136 0
CDI 0 2 71 524 631 622 368 0
VCDI 0 0 0 192 1026 3277 11550 19909

Date: 2015-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89783 41533 5089 713 265 5 0 0
OW 0 1942 1438 937 150 64 0 0
VODI 0 386 863 2132 542 103 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 841 1445 188 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 340 1211 1307 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 670 4743 15269 14905
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89783 41161 5142 845 299 21 0 0
OW 0 1741 955 1018 199 50 0 0
VODI 0 866 855 1445 1088 246 0 0
ODI 0 87 292 616 847 687 1 0
CDI 0 6 162 541 727 969 111 0
VCDI 0 0 17 535 1123 4437 15271 14905


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