Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86161 12551 934 379 11 0 0 0
OW 0 2 103 245 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 33 224 201 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 70 232 131 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 150 277 339 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 2466 4460
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83638 14922 1018 328 21 0 0 0
OW 0 29 86 174 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 54 169 240 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 60 211 123 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 43 118 358 340 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 40 2137 4869
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79470 17093 2787 504 40 2 0 0
OW 0 1 42 215 56 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 156 202 13 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 260 145 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 59 443 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 110 2757 4514
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80864 16988 1330 518 124 10 0 0
OW 0 13 70 130 80 32 0 0
VODI 0 2 30 121 147 86 5 0
ODI 0 0 3 39 115 221 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 44 456 328 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 86 2640 4585
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80864 16989 1333 533 125 13 0 0
OW 0 12 63 111 82 34 0 0
VODI 0 2 34 121 137 82 6 0
ODI 0 0 3 44 112 212 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 54 458 300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 92 2669 4585

Date: 2015-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81405 15983 1543 670 99 9 0 0
OW 0 18 52 152 76 35 2 0
VODI 0 1 31 133 150 44 9 0
ODI 0 0 5 54 201 112 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 129 437 137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 238 2648 4671
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81405 15982 1545 670 127 17 0 0
OW 0 18 45 139 55 33 2 0
VODI 0 2 36 140 153 33 10 0
ODI 0 0 5 60 175 122 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 139 420 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 250 2654 4671

Date: 2015-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81251 16518 1576 291 46 0 0 0
OW 0 6 96 134 38 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 205 139 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 292 45 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 588 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 228 2818 4641
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81251 16473 1490 324 78 11 0 0
OW 0 42 103 77 76 5 4 0
VODI 0 9 70 133 137 8 10 0
ODI 0 0 22 96 154 65 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 161 415 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 376 2752 4641

Date: 2015-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83026 15477 882 242 31 0 0 0
OW 0 16 124 94 52 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 201 80 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 198 19 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 260 240 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 367 2972 4585
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83026 15390 809 260 68 7 0 0
OW 0 76 94 65 47 8 2 0
VODI 0 27 94 144 88 5 9 0
ODI 0 0 46 89 159 14 11 0
CDI 0 0 4 71 255 230 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 377 2947 4585

Date: 2015-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80695 17358 1263 211 41 2 0 0
OW 0 27 117 66 56 10 0 0
VODI 0 3 53 128 85 13 6 0
ODI 0 0 12 102 115 18 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 211 226 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 54 386 2696 5063
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80695 17277 1164 203 59 8 2 0
OW 0 62 96 43 54 8 7 0
VODI 0 40 112 110 77 15 8 0
ODI 0 9 46 72 123 26 12 0
CDI 0 0 27 99 162 112 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 87 486 2692 5063


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