Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4515 16508 3264 722 107 0 0 0
OW 0 841 1060 935 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 228 1508 210 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 469 1053 213 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 671 1180 553 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 64 714 3638 7123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4398 17065 2667 275 31 0 0 0
OW 0 1483 1028 774 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 131 413 1217 345 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 272 506 369 245 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 313 630 1291 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 39 436 2908 8955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6136 16886 3275 734 30 0 0 0
OW 0 90 462 444 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 65 809 119 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 277 451 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 432 795 166 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 32 959 4567 8935
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3020 18327 3804 799 76 0 0 0
OW 0 296 745 607 151 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 164 668 206 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 416 283 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 415 349 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 241 1382 4391 9346
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3020 18457 4034 1044 90 0 0 0
OW 0 168 538 542 169 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 142 574 208 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 324 276 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 370 369 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 259 1355 4393 9346

Date: 2015-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2763 17553 3855 463 19 0 0 0
OW 0 430 603 1205 276 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 176 746 356 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 318 386 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 424 473 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 112 960 4012 10528
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2763 17811 4127 885 143 0 0 0
OW 0 177 417 960 180 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 92 642 419 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 252 320 159 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 375 468 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 136 931 3989 10528

Date: 2015-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1718 18033 3733 209 1 0 0 0
OW 0 378 1228 995 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 95 1490 297 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 105 883 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 265 904 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 9 794 3948 10688
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1718 18233 4378 1007 45 0 0 0
OW 0 178 575 914 162 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 101 694 444 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 158 551 104 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 200 565 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 74 1052 3933 10688

Date: 2015-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3742 16498 2486 386 28 0 0 0
OW 0 523 1212 1067 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 269 1397 547 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 183 522 173 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 358 423 143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 38 782 4018 10937
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3742 16743 3145 1241 93 0 0 0
OW 0 296 662 839 146 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 149 710 519 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 187 372 159 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 312 371 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 130 845 4038 10937

Date: 2015-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4038 16461 2631 72 0 0 0 0
OW 83 904 673 624 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 185 512 1261 618 39 0 0
ODI 0 1 70 305 345 224 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 128 282 443 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 274 1371 4061 10118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4070 16430 3015 485 4 0 0 0
OW 51 777 449 874 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 174 249 575 564 47 0 0
ODI 0 121 71 215 251 148 0 0
CDI 0 37 70 128 212 367 9 0
VCDI 0 12 47 180 397 1515 4089 10118


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