Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-09-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94425 44209 5284 1151 118 0 0 0
OW 0 1205 1510 1324 178 0 0 0
VODI 0 147 498 2040 475 8 0 0
ODI 0 9 79 830 1491 377 39 0
CDI 0 0 25 281 1359 2031 1427 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 112 1258 9996 15154
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92202 46789 4434 646 52 0 0 0
OW 0 2194 1483 1064 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 272 763 1662 635 42 1 0
ODI 0 26 117 625 923 524 260 0
CDI 0 1 37 293 1022 1588 2055 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 111 970 8880 17288
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90576 48082 6839 1262 70 2 0 0
OW 0 947 884 866 155 4 0 0
VODI 0 68 263 1398 389 14 2 0
ODI 0 0 22 538 982 247 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 921 1941 568 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 39 1357 11673 16829
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87742 49903 6006 1363 200 10 0 0
OW 0 1141 1286 967 231 32 0 0
VODI 0 106 451 1313 447 87 5 0
ODI 0 0 21 722 685 342 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 130 826 1300 803 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 245 1637 11176 17820
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87742 50132 6381 1658 215 13 0 0
OW 0 888 982 882 251 34 0 0
VODI 0 130 385 1195 428 83 6 0
ODI 0 0 16 630 668 338 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 131 813 1351 742 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 259 1589 11235 17820

Date: 2015-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88075 47674 6222 1150 118 9 0 0
OW 0 1487 1103 1541 352 35 2 0
VODI 0 172 574 1385 550 44 9 0
ODI 0 2 40 734 880 281 31 0
CDI 0 0 1 137 1000 1434 471 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 187 1513 10712 19096
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88075 48120 6590 1584 270 17 0 0
OW 0 990 856 1305 235 33 2 0
VODI 0 225 458 1252 628 38 11 0
ODI 0 0 36 680 754 313 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 130 970 1386 497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 230 1529 10689 19096

Date: 2015-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86437 49621 6334 531 47 0 0 0
OW 0 652 1823 1327 59 10 0 0
VODI 0 19 235 2356 526 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 331 1637 120 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 693 2094 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 12 1399 11077 19559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86437 48780 6744 1365 124 11 0 0
OW 0 965 990 1099 251 5 4 0
VODI 0 431 486 1188 680 54 10 0
ODI 0 116 140 585 936 296 18 0
CDI 0 0 34 291 749 1458 437 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 234 1809 10710 19559

Date: 2015-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89862 46690 4240 671 59 0 0 0
OW 0 842 1838 1451 140 6 0 0
VODI 0 48 462 2237 819 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 435 1222 328 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 833 1402 415 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 82 1483 11264 20113
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89862 46158 4787 1596 181 7 0 0
OW 0 1042 1045 996 249 15 2 0
VODI 0 345 509 1261 700 161 14 0
ODI 0 34 187 607 762 329 85 0
CDI 0 1 28 354 950 1001 592 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 313 1725 11000 20113

Date: 2015-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87244 48310 4883 330 44 2 0 0
OW 83 1431 1238 906 89 10 0 0
VODI 0 257 847 1957 837 60 6 0
ODI 0 2 134 727 856 294 15 0
CDI 0 0 15 209 909 1233 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 346 2432 11137 19880
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87276 47698 5333 890 134 15 2 0
OW 51 1540 708 1092 276 56 8 0
VODI 0 551 617 963 742 194 82 0
ODI 0 158 287 593 539 336 106 0
CDI 0 41 125 440 767 878 452 0
VCDI 0 12 47 219 623 2552 10765 19880


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