Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85016 13833 972 300 0 0 0 0
OW 0 25 156 331 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 73 259 86 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 128 163 82 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 229 259 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 122 2577 4170
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81680 16805 1232 328 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 149 343 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 80 246 103 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 148 159 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 251 235 204 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 138 3209 3591
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83298 15588 917 440 34 0 0 0
OW 0 10 82 189 146 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 180 257 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 53 246 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 137 264 274 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 206 2416 4194
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82368 16204 1066 470 10 0 0 0
OW 0 9 94 191 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 29 167 275 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 49 222 150 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 134 310 306 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 47 2583 4289
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82368 16204 1050 535 80 0 0 0
OW 0 9 105 118 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 167 195 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 58 213 119 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 126 305 308 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 67 2581 4289

Date: 2015-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84360 14352 929 312 14 0 0 0
OW 0 18 85 191 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 45 194 238 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 68 262 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 138 357 286 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 51 2571 4422
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84360 14345 917 364 20 0 0 0
OW 0 23 79 147 146 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 57 167 174 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 84 214 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 166 340 236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 60 2621 4422

Date: 2015-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81187 17368 1045 292 14 0 0 0
OW 0 4 94 213 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 14 233 131 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 358 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 88 488 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 78 2796 4486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81187 17298 942 443 49 0 0 0
OW 0 44 83 81 141 10 0 0
VODI 0 25 76 104 159 51 0 0
ODI 0 5 39 94 128 142 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 69 125 322 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 101 2526 4486

Date: 2015-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84072 14344 1082 350 40 2 0 0
OW 0 6 62 191 45 7 0 0
VODI 0 1 21 152 183 13 6 0
ODI 0 0 2 37 200 161 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 80 416 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 117 2680 4566
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84072 14267 926 350 52 2 0 0
OW 0 45 94 93 97 6 0 0
VODI 0 24 79 106 132 96 6 0
ODI 0 12 37 104 113 147 9 0
CDI 0 3 31 80 133 398 221 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 21 67 2710 4566

Date: 2015-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79933 18047 1181 423 136 21 2 0
OW 0 9 91 108 67 49 3 0
VODI 0 2 26 143 116 88 13 0
ODI 0 0 4 49 132 188 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 64 448 287 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 115 2703 4614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79933 18002 1085 391 153 45 0 0
OW 0 27 93 67 50 59 7 0
VODI 0 19 70 97 75 135 11 0
ODI 0 10 27 113 86 153 14 0
CDI 0 0 27 63 125 329 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 188 2782 4614


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