Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5186 17197 3230 740 13 0 0 0
OW 0 477 906 1052 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 90 1623 403 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 419 1426 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 176 1708 870 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 37 573 3966 5578
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5714 16354 3109 805 21 0 0 0
OW 0 827 929 1085 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 203 1388 238 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 625 1085 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 270 1665 931 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 145 698 4022 5509
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4184 18552 3356 742 30 0 0 0
OW 0 266 689 971 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 95 1778 133 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 478 1541 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1003 1404 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 31 393 3460 6537
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4704 16396 3592 940 53 0 0 0
OW 0 574 963 972 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 249 1417 238 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 505 1216 219 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 723 1382 290 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 79 638 3655 6817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4704 16162 3881 1191 58 0 0 0
OW 0 782 618 843 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 305 1252 221 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 554 1264 296 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 693 1406 317 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 39 537 3628 6817

Date: 2015-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3882 17400 2823 538 38 0 0 0
OW 0 1186 1100 892 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 291 1443 267 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 357 721 359 98 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 485 782 1143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 100 363 3322 8065
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3838 17375 3001 964 49 0 0 0
OW 44 1118 828 611 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 188 385 1273 180 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 375 842 344 124 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 457 790 1236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 70 358 3203 8065

Date: 2015-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3374 19426 3694 602 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 638 479 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 74 919 110 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 171 577 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 381 1083 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 18 414 4190 9499
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3360 17805 3016 647 20 0 0 0
OW 14 1407 697 492 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 272 649 779 317 28 0 0
ODI 0 2 44 225 389 452 178 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 236 642 1383 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 47 422 2688 9499

Date: 2015-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1888 19103 4284 1033 197 0 0 0
OW 0 113 672 555 124 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 158 744 101 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 412 358 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 495 437 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 216 1372 4361 9103
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1888 17501 3789 1011 261 0 0 0
OW 0 1243 599 493 168 0 0 0
VODI 0 469 694 887 230 18 0 0
ODI 0 3 33 369 530 267 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 260 1021 489 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 42 518 3887 9103

Date: 2015-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2440 17937 4078 658 61 0 0 0
OW 0 349 629 1025 314 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 148 623 366 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 310 369 116 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 397 401 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 195 1141 4060 10126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2440 16708 3606 902 179 0 0 0
OW 0 958 525 460 368 32 0 0
VODI 0 561 583 931 357 171 0 0
ODI 0 61 143 295 455 334 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 214 579 427 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 129 548 3632 10126


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