Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85755 13537 936 320 4 0 0 0
OW 0 23 105 394 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 47 280 143 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 83 192 69 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 127 323 331 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 153 2430 3742
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84635 14569 914 278 6 0 0 0
OW 0 25 150 306 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 64 255 167 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 122 169 85 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 156 291 489 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 123 2403 3733
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83726 15283 1227 167 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 152 328 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 394 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 251 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 198 271 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 89 2663 4096
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80669 17956 1230 387 1 0 0 0
OW 0 40 142 316 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 70 280 83 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 94 227 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 56 213 253 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 2514 4260
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80669 17951 1249 461 16 0 0 0
OW 0 44 128 281 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 63 240 73 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 103 215 21 3 0
CDI 0 0 2 48 227 245 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 90 2507 4260

Date: 2015-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80189 18656 931 274 0 0 0 0
OW 0 26 153 336 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 86 249 97 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 123 196 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 258 241 196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 123 2572 4235
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80189 18661 928 307 9 0 0 0
OW 0 20 161 297 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 80 255 74 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 131 188 47 1 0
CDI 0 0 4 51 265 219 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 141 2576 4235

Date: 2015-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84138 14570 1169 341 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 124 325 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 392 122 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 305 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 155 335 158 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 118 3259 3481
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84138 14516 1051 326 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 158 316 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 65 273 105 8 0 0
ODI 0 2 22 150 180 62 2 0
CDI 0 0 5 52 256 262 187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 156 3228 3481

Date: 2015-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83843 14974 936 448 4 0 0 0
OW 0 13 94 229 100 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 186 230 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 56 153 197 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 99 255 348 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 71 2574 4213
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83843 14854 835 381 6 0 0 0
OW 0 77 77 213 90 3 0 0
VODI 0 44 72 158 201 65 3 0
ODI 0 12 54 83 136 168 24 0
CDI 0 0 19 91 153 230 300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 93 2602 4213

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86161 12551 934 379 11 0 0 0
OW 0 2 103 245 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 33 224 201 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 70 232 131 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 150 277 339 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 2466 4460
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86161 12450 811 310 8 0 0 0
OW 0 70 98 222 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 88 182 179 18 0 0
ODI 0 6 56 119 203 135 6 0
CDI 0 0 18 103 208 264 267 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 60 2532 4460


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