Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3269 14155 978 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 555 275 199 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 127 320 362 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 27 127 413 117 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 63 265 405 413 442 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 112 705 4303 4310
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2859 14615 782 63 0 0 0 0
OW 0 686 278 129 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 201 350 295 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 39 191 406 84 4 2 0
CDI 0 2 77 354 464 467 734 0
VCDI 0 0 2 21 205 309 4088 4371
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3833 14504 995 77 0 0 0 0
OW 0 125 454 257 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 163 485 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 29 276 168 2 5 0
CDI 0 0 4 162 550 577 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 320 4406 4411
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3113 15088 957 138 0 0 0 0
OW 0 253 407 215 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 228 364 8 2 3 0
ODI 0 1 48 287 156 31 12 0
CDI 0 0 13 218 544 621 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 98 334 4233 4385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3113 15182 994 160 0 0 0 0
OW 0 152 358 206 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 234 355 12 2 3 0
ODI 0 1 53 267 171 26 14 0
CDI 0 0 14 233 515 578 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 110 382 4289 4385

Date: 2015-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4203 14220 794 127 0 0 0 0
OW 0 399 404 91 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 86 285 277 17 7 11 0
ODI 0 10 109 288 167 13 13 0
CDI 0 2 49 307 693 555 217 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 112 632 4029 3948
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4203 14264 888 131 0 0 0 0
OW 0 348 320 93 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 274 283 14 4 9 0
ODI 0 13 108 272 168 17 14 0
CDI 0 3 51 306 667 459 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 140 727 4145 3948

Date: 2015-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5149 13641 994 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 252 460 151 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 86 478 46 0 2 0
ODI 0 0 15 222 269 6 19 0
CDI 0 0 3 123 548 741 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 326 4162 4176
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5149 13403 882 111 0 0 0 0
OW 0 344 227 79 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 122 278 254 18 1 15 0
ODI 0 25 129 295 160 18 18 0
CDI 0 3 42 312 616 682 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 79 372 3912 4176

Date: 2015-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5264 13929 820 129 0 0 0 0
OW 0 191 365 141 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 156 388 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 35 271 212 8 24 0
CDI 0 0 6 166 635 623 280 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 719 4055 3574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5264 13220 635 118 0 0 0 0
OW 0 599 151 66 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 236 364 190 21 0 2 0
ODI 0 58 125 335 130 23 21 0
CDI 0 26 103 349 657 585 455 0
VCDI 0 0 4 37 111 742 3881 3574

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3749 15150 1086 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 362 347 144 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 237 308 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 78 291 206 33 23 0
CDI 0 0 25 205 538 574 535 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 483 3892 3571
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3749 14426 925 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 618 169 66 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 320 322 202 51 13 1 0
ODI 0 123 151 213 171 41 28 0
CDI 0 98 186 407 485 523 578 0
VCDI 0 2 20 58 146 513 3843 3571


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