Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6167 14871 1810 534 5 0 0 0
OW 0 853 1143 689 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 189 721 1931 267 16 2 0
ODI 0 16 70 1274 1209 148 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 175 2254 898 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 260 1621 3876 4574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4947 15746 2310 575 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1058 999 730 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 318 733 1579 328 3 3 0
ODI 0 4 123 1279 992 85 105 0
CDI 0 0 0 294 2115 462 857 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 278 831 3431 5589
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7460 15228 2593 635 2 0 0 0
OW 0 359 1229 956 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 126 2168 253 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 543 1469 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 1396 718 209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 97 551 4148 5550
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5132 16816 3601 758 8 0 0 0
OW 0 447 960 984 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 85 1708 405 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 410 1534 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 175 1559 891 114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 48 780 5121 4183
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5132 16779 3821 952 13 0 0 0
OW 0 478 681 932 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 144 1519 457 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 444 1460 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 189 1564 842 113 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 831 5122 4181

Date: 2015-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5753 16478 3103 894 12 0 0 0
OW 0 471 935 1191 48 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 115 1513 323 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 407 1316 103 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 222 1644 1007 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 49 580 3352 6214
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5753 16350 3276 1183 17 0 0 0
OW 0 590 711 1062 50 3 0 0
VODI 0 9 168 1313 368 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 434 1262 84 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 235 1570 957 144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 125 644 3286 6214

Date: 2015-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5138 17551 3387 699 11 0 0 0
OW 0 258 791 955 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 66 1978 154 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 425 1686 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 1221 1188 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 14 556 4418 5229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5138 17111 3353 1050 21 0 0 0
OW 0 621 629 918 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 261 1217 241 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 659 947 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 247 1633 974 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 225 778 4329 5229

Date: 2015-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1963 19794 3761 800 43 0 0 0
OW 0 469 667 980 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 198 1555 185 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 474 1458 154 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 838 1222 308 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 55 522 3473 6764
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1963 19488 3602 1074 46 0 0 0
OW 0 762 673 826 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 340 1129 267 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 637 863 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 179 1259 1028 240 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 130 809 3541 6764

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4515 16508 3264 722 107 0 0 0
OW 0 841 1060 935 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 228 1508 210 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 469 1053 213 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 671 1180 553 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 64 714 3638 7123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4515 16464 3155 850 65 0 0 0
OW 0 859 846 805 171 0 0 0
VODI 0 107 508 1318 226 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 43 570 774 123 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 889 1202 431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 107 782 3776 7123


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