Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-09-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95191 42563 3724 928 9 0 0 0
OW 0 1431 1523 1282 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 316 1088 2573 441 31 2 0
ODI 0 43 201 1770 1518 230 32 0
CDI 0 0 63 473 2786 1634 991 3
VCDI 0 0 0 22 398 2479 10609 12626
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92441 44930 4006 916 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1769 1427 1165 175 0 0 0
VODI 0 521 1147 2129 499 14 3 0
ODI 0 43 321 1807 1245 174 109 0
CDI 0 2 77 677 2735 1220 2080 0
VCDI 0 0 2 21 499 1263 9922 13693
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95019 45015 4815 879 6 0 0 0
OW 0 484 1835 1541 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 300 3047 340 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 29 907 1888 60 5 0
CDI 0 0 4 252 2144 1566 453 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 155 960 11217 14057
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88914 49860 5788 1283 9 0 0 0
OW 0 740 1509 1515 142 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 383 2352 496 16 3 0
ODI 0 1 64 791 1917 75 12 0
CDI 0 0 14 449 2316 1765 567 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 146 1198 11868 12828
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88914 49912 6064 1573 29 0 0 0
OW 0 674 1167 1419 130 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 441 2114 542 14 3 0
ODI 0 1 70 814 1846 72 17 0
CDI 0 0 16 470 2306 1665 512 2
VCDI 0 0 0 3 173 1303 11918 12826

Date: 2015-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90145 49354 4828 1295 12 0 0 0
OW 0 896 1492 1618 79 2 0 0
VODI 0 86 486 2039 437 45 11 0
ODI 0 10 145 818 1679 160 14 0
CDI 0 2 49 588 2595 1803 491 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 161 1335 9953 14397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90145 49275 5092 1621 26 0 0 0
OW 0 958 1192 1452 82 3 0 0
VODI 0 99 522 1851 456 47 9 0
ODI 0 13 139 837 1618 148 16 0
CDI 0 3 55 592 2502 1635 437 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 279 1512 10007 14397

Date: 2015-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94425 45762 5550 1141 11 0 0 0
OW 0 510 1375 1431 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 160 2848 322 1 2 0
ODI 0 0 15 705 2260 82 19 0
CDI 0 0 3 173 1924 2264 273 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 24 1000 11839 12886
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94425 45030 5286 1487 21 0 0 0
OW 0 997 1014 1313 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 227 604 1744 364 13 15 0
ODI 0 27 152 1104 1287 110 20 0
CDI 0 3 47 611 2505 1918 629 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 324 1306 11469 12886

Date: 2015-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91070 48697 5517 1377 47 0 0 0
OW 0 673 1126 1350 138 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 380 2129 453 36 0 0
ODI 0 1 36 801 1823 359 31 0
CDI 0 0 6 235 1572 2100 936 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 89 1312 10102 14551
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91070 47562 5072 1573 52 0 0 0
OW 0 1438 901 1105 142 3 0 0
VODI 0 369 776 1477 489 65 5 0
ODI 0 70 190 1055 1129 252 45 0
CDI 0 26 122 619 2069 1843 995 0
VCDI 0 0 4 70 241 1644 10024 14551

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94425 44209 5284 1151 118 0 0 0
OW 0 1205 1510 1324 178 0 0 0
VODI 0 147 498 2040 475 8 0 0
ODI 0 9 79 830 1491 377 39 0
CDI 0 0 25 281 1359 2031 1427 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 112 1258 9996 15154
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94425 43340 4891 1212 73 0 0 0
OW 0 1547 1113 1093 221 0 0 0
VODI 0 454 918 1702 456 31 1 0
ODI 0 129 250 902 1148 299 34 0
CDI 0 98 204 631 1582 1989 1276 0
VCDI 0 2 20 94 253 1355 10151 15154


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