Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-08-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1985 13917 879 113 0 0 0 0
OW 0 396 434 359 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 266 731 198 40 5 0
ODI 0 0 9 318 443 231 803 0
CDI 0 0 0 107 1153 1040 3197 418
VCDI 0 0 0 1 108 1104 2020 1744
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2269 13713 1006 127 0 0 0 0
OW 0 538 393 311 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 343 595 125 38 29 0
ODI 0 29 97 352 369 180 552 91
CDI 0 2 63 112 277 533 3688 1142
VCDI 0 0 0 16 50 36 917 3911
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4432 13143 859 139 0 0 0 0
OW 0 176 474 266 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 151 599 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 331 276 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 94 404 491 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 52 766 4738 4446
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3891 13809 738 77 0 0 0 0
OW 0 473 356 178 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 87 302 430 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 103 404 166 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 34 237 400 434 300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 120 871 4494 4115
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3891 13840 831 129 0 0 0 0
OW 0 415 236 157 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 320 400 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 102 397 149 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 40 235 404 384 294 0
VCDI 0 0 4 29 124 926 4500 4115

Date: 2015-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4037 13551 734 68 0 0 0 0
OW 0 600 329 137 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 163 346 318 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 31 156 386 116 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 72 311 379 380 736 0
VCDI 0 0 3 18 172 387 4218 4397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4037 13608 800 92 0 0 0 0
OW 0 461 266 119 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 236 324 333 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 37 167 355 99 27 1 0
CDI 0 3 69 307 372 326 586 0
VCDI 0 0 14 32 193 434 4367 4397

Date: 2015-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3500 14852 840 77 0 0 0 0
OW 0 174 543 259 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 156 604 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 261 211 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 99 525 693 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 315 4522 4348
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3500 14096 697 89 0 0 0 0
OW 0 544 243 85 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 319 315 328 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 63 191 375 88 11 0 0
CDI 0 5 101 402 492 599 418 0
VCDI 0 0 8 21 213 404 4120 4348

Date: 2015-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3598 14439 1200 99 0 0 0 0
OW 0 215 405 233 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 211 398 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 41 283 150 7 6 0
CDI 0 0 9 220 549 580 281 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 105 302 4281 4429
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3598 13493 980 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 622 174 105 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 463 369 255 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 80 237 322 90 8 0 0
CDI 0 20 106 462 490 459 506 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 238 422 4062 4429

Date: 2015-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2876 15215 1063 148 0 0 0 0
OW 0 293 441 136 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 272 310 14 3 9 0
ODI 0 3 67 290 166 19 12 0
CDI 0 0 19 241 574 662 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 79 337 4185 4337
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2876 14307 897 93 0 0 0 0
OW 0 711 151 70 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 430 424 198 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 80 276 275 76 30 9 0
CDI 0 19 114 459 509 594 854 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 245 397 3611 4337


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