Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-08-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6208 12025 2913 658 3 0 0 0
OW 0 148 1096 1597 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 179 3348 857 7 2 0
ODI 0 13 16 402 2062 605 515 0
CDI 0 39 78 57 211 1010 2387 12
VCDI 0 0 0 4 0 118 5875 3364
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3812 15168 2552 500 1 0 0 0
OW 0 436 1093 1501 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 310 2985 834 4 0 0
ODI 0 19 23 429 2001 585 101 0
CDI 0 44 73 61 646 2212 1553 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 0 218 3471 5175
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5857 14359 2381 479 3 0 0 0
OW 0 161 1107 1003 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 212 3025 290 20 0 0
ODI 0 29 14 490 2296 231 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 919 2005 397 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 0 712 4668 5123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5924 15020 1816 528 2 0 0 0
OW 0 934 944 681 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 187 953 1929 204 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 59 1486 1164 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 1898 1505 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 1272 5183 3805
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5924 15229 1930 573 1 0 0 0
OW 0 687 727 588 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 225 1051 2081 279 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 64 1400 1199 97 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 1806 1503 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1253 5182 3805

Date: 2015-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4894 15906 2124 554 3 0 0 0
OW 0 843 1170 723 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 226 673 1858 272 8 4 0
ODI 0 11 97 1288 1110 96 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 246 2260 369 667 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 581 904 3570 5271
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4894 15966 2233 594 4 0 0 0
OW 0 726 882 682 51 1 0 0
VODI 0 282 876 1963 292 8 3 0
ODI 0 12 73 1223 1208 110 96 0
CDI 0 0 0 207 2242 399 724 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 482 859 3503 5271

Date: 2015-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2075 19125 3266 589 10 1 0 0
OW 0 577 1612 825 30 4 0 0
VODI 0 3 174 2350 270 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 453 1690 63 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 1268 779 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 49 574 4300 5547
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2075 18209 3104 614 17 9 0 0
OW 0 986 772 463 109 30 0 0
VODI 0 507 1033 1427 292 38 2 0
ODI 0 3 143 1510 775 87 134 0
CDI 0 0 0 240 1837 475 942 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 287 813 3386 5547

Date: 2015-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5174 17309 2983 748 5 0 0 0
OW 0 349 1092 935 118 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 120 1842 404 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 420 1479 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 154 1345 828 226 5
VCDI 0 0 0 1 153 605 4102 5385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5174 16041 2391 639 43 0 0 0
OW 0 1175 745 510 120 0 0 0
VODI 0 441 926 1315 367 18 0 0
ODI 0 1 133 1242 870 102 93 1
CDI 0 0 0 389 1815 564 1083 52
VCDI 0 0 0 5 289 833 3152 5337

Date: 2015-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5186 17197 3230 740 13 0 0 0
OW 0 477 906 1052 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 90 1623 403 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 419 1426 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 176 1708 870 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 37 573 3966 5578
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5186 15915 2493 642 42 10 0 0
OW 0 1342 867 533 113 13 0 0
VODI 0 416 734 1294 412 22 0 0
ODI 0 1 132 1176 852 57 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 335 1912 771 925 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 312 618 3113 5578


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