Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-08-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91827 40280 5573 1600 15 0 0 0
OW 0 544 1581 2511 210 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 445 4365 1508 62 8 0
ODI 0 13 25 736 3052 1163 1398 0
CDI 0 39 78 164 1475 3118 6942 430
VCDI 0 0 0 5 108 1332 10637 5764
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89686 43993 5057 1078 36 0 0 0
OW 0 980 1597 2241 187 15 0 0
VODI 0 179 670 3845 1240 253 42 0
ODI 0 48 120 806 2525 1150 1005 91
CDI 0 46 136 173 933 3077 7359 1250
VCDI 0 0 0 20 50 298 5209 11653
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95148 42005 4309 840 6 0 0 0
OW 0 337 1676 1723 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 366 3955 502 26 0 0
ODI 0 29 41 852 2836 380 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 120 1373 2760 811 1
VCDI 0 0 0 6 52 1577 11986 13239
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92926 44347 4168 932 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1421 1374 1297 53 1 0 0
VODI 0 274 1291 2636 384 29 0 0
ODI 0 23 166 1958 1495 199 2 0
CDI 0 0 34 366 2424 2203 680 1
VCDI 0 0 0 21 166 2262 12163 11747
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92926 44589 4356 1069 4 0 0 0
OW 0 1114 1060 1166 66 1 0 0
VODI 0 333 1402 2733 447 24 0 0
ODI 0 29 171 1866 1523 206 5 0
CDI 0 0 40 347 2340 2166 658 1
VCDI 0 0 4 29 147 2297 12182 11747

Date: 2015-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92591 45034 3749 1006 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1465 1607 1195 129 1 0 0
VODI 0 389 1074 2449 431 29 4 0
ODI 0 42 257 1762 1411 202 87 0
CDI 0 0 72 595 2782 1062 1770 0
VCDI 0 0 3 18 771 1439 10283 13332
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92591 45158 3931 988 53 0 0 0
OW 0 1202 1262 1232 91 1 0 0
VODI 0 518 1241 2548 431 20 3 0
ODI 0 49 245 1686 1492 231 101 0
CDI 0 3 69 539 2782 1043 1718 0
VCDI 0 0 14 32 682 1438 10322 13332

Date: 2015-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87716 50673 5445 872 31 3 0 0
OW 0 751 2295 1434 51 4 0 0
VODI 0 4 332 3385 381 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 754 2189 113 3 0
CDI 0 0 1 136 1904 1798 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 95 972 11582 13841
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87716 48972 4999 921 36 11 0 0
OW 0 1558 1203 941 150 30 0 0
VODI 0 827 1429 1995 437 46 2 0
ODI 0 66 348 2012 1019 196 144 0
CDI 0 5 101 692 2505 1338 1956 0
VCDI 0 0 8 21 504 1301 9718 13841

Date: 2015-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91058 48089 5617 1115 5 0 0 0
OW 0 580 1630 1512 151 2 0 0
VODI 0 23 356 2554 517 13 0 0
ODI 0 3 46 792 1880 91 6 0
CDI 0 0 9 395 2068 1687 616 5
VCDI 0 0 0 1 258 979 11021 13969
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91058 45798 4687 946 43 0 0 0
OW 0 1856 1074 978 150 0 0 0
VODI 0 936 1377 1768 508 20 0 0
ODI 0 85 412 1674 1141 154 96 1
CDI 0 20 108 969 2488 1270 2033 54
VCDI 0 0 0 34 549 1328 9514 13919

Date: 2015-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93078 46245 5265 1188 13 0 0 0
OW 0 795 1503 1519 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 435 2192 503 29 9 0
ODI 0 3 87 837 1755 131 13 0
CDI 0 0 19 475 2511 1791 552 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 118 1032 10728 14085
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93078 43921 4306 1007 42 10 0 0
OW 0 2144 1147 895 142 13 0 0
VODI 0 908 1217 1745 520 40 0 0
ODI 0 90 493 1554 1062 169 38 0
CDI 0 19 146 948 2629 1588 1998 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 597 1163 9266 14085


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